Giants vs. Cowboys prediction: Don’t bet on fireworks show on MNF

If you’re hoping to see a fireworks show when the Giants and Cowboys face off under the lights on Monday, prepare yourself for disappointment.

New York is a slim home favorite at BetMGM for its Week 3 tilt with Dallas, which is rolling with backup quarterback Cooper Rush for the second straight week. Neither of these has scored more than 21 points in a game so far, and both will be hard-pressed to hit that number in this one.

Here’s how we’re betting Monday night’s contest, which kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Whenever a game has a total this low, it’s an indicator from oddsmakers that neither team inspires enough confidence even from the public – let alone sharps – to hang a reasonable number in the 40s. That often pays off for under bettors, and I’d expect another snoozer on Monday night.

The biggest appeal for under bettors is clearly this Cowboys offense, which ranks dead last in points per game (11.5) and fifth-worst in yards per game (290.5) through the first two weeks of the season. Rush stepped up last week against a shaky Bengals defense, but his side still managed just 20 points thanks to a suspect receiving corps and battered O-line.

It won’t get any easier against the Giants, who have held their first two opponents to 20 points or fewer and are full of playmakers at every level. New York’s pass defense has been especially stout, limiting teams to 197.5 yards per contest – eighth-best in the league – and just three combined offensive touchdowns through two games.

New York’s offense is better than the unit that ranked 31st in points and yards a year ago, but this year’s group still hasn’t topped 21 points in a game and ranks in the middle of the pack in nearly every metric. Daniel Jones has cut down on his turnovers, but he’s thrown for less than 190 yards and ranked 29th in attempts (55) entering Week 3.

Clearly, new head coach Brian Daboll is trying not to ask too much from the fourth-year QB, which also limits his team’s offensive upside. It won’t get any easier against these Cowboys, who are tied with the Giants for the eighth-best scoring defense (20 PPG) and have held opponents to 180 passing yards per game – fourth-best in the league.

The betting market tends to inflate the total on Monday night, with the under riding a sizzling 13-3 run dating back to last season. And while this is tied for the second-lowest total in that stretch, I don’t expect either of these teams to foil that run given their offensive struggles to date.

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