Giants vs. Cowboys prediction: Bank on another blowout victory for Dallas

Most NFL pundits — be it in the mainstream media or sports betting community — have been waiting nearly three months for the “real” New York Giants to show up for the 2022-23 season.

It might have finally happened Sunday, when the Giants ended up on the wrong end of a 31-18 beatdown from the Detroit Lions — at home.

Judging by the Giants vs. Cowboys odds on Thanksgiving, New York’s long-awaited regression is here. Because barring an unlikely point spread move in the Giants’ direction, New York (7-3 SU and ATS) will be catching as many points as it has all season — and Dallas (also 7-3 SU and ATS) will be laying as many points as it has all season.

The good news for the G-Men: They’re 5-1 ATS as an underdog this season. The not-so-good news: Dallas is 20-7 ATS since the start of last season, and 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS against the Giants since 2017 (including a 23-16 upset victory in New York in Week 3).

Will we see the Cowboys extend those streaks Thursday? That’s what we’re wagering on. Here’s our Giants vs. Cowboys prediction for the middle game of the NFL’s Turkey Day tripleheader.

Note: All odds updated as of 12:15 p.m. ET on Nov. 23.

Last week, we suggested a play on the Cowboys as a tiny road favorite at Minnesota. We also suggested that the final score might not be close.

Never in a million years, though, did we envision the kind of Mike Tyson-in-his-prime knockout blow that the Cowboys delivered.

Facing an opponent that had won seven straight games and was tied for the NFL’s best record, Dallas stomped the Vikings, 40-3, as a 1.5-point favorite. In posting the league’s biggest blowout of the season, the Cowboys bounced back from a 31-28 overtime loss at Green Bay — a loss that saw Dallas blow a 14-point fourth-quarter lead for the first time in franchise history.

With the win in Minnesota (and New York’s loss to the Lions), Dallas pulled into a second-place tie with the Giants in the NFC East. Both squads are two games behind Philadelphia (9-1).

Allow us to suggest that, records aside, these teams are nowhere near equals.

Dallas is averaging 35.3 points and 412.8 yards per game since quarterback Dak Prescott returned from a thumb injury that sidelined him for four-plus games. Contrast that with what the Cowboys’ offense produced in the first six contests: 18.3 points and 300.8 yards per outing.

» READ MORE: Bills vs. Lions prediction: Bet on Detroit to cover as big home underdog

Dallas’ highly-ranked defense also got back on track against Minnesota, yielding just a single field goal and 183 total yards after giving up 60 points and an average of 393 yards the previous two weeks.

Not only have the Cowboys been winning a lot lately, but they’ve been winning big. Including two games that backup QB Cooper Rush started, Dallas’ last five victories have been by margins of 38, 20, 18, 12 and 15 points.

Also, since a 19-3 loss to Tampa Bay in Week 1, coach Mike McCarthy’s squad is 4-0 at home, winning by an average final score of 30.3-15.5.

Meanwhile, the Giants have followed up a shocking 6-1 SU and ATS start by dropping two of their last three (both overall and against the number).

In four games since a 24-20 home win over Baltimore — a game Ravens QB Lamar Jackson flat out gave away — New York has two wins over the Jaguars and Texans (combined record: 5-15-1) and two losses to the Seahawks and Lions by 14 and 13 points, respectively.

And while the Cowboys’ offense has erupted, the Giants remain one of the NFL’s lowest-scoring teams (20.5 points per game). About the only thing New York does consistently well is run the football, ranking fourth in rushing at 157.2 yards per game.

» READ MORE: Michigan vs. Ohio State odds: Who is the better bet to win it all?

You would think that would give the Giants a big advantage Thursday, since the Cowboys rank 26th in rushing defense (136.1 ypg).

Yet when these teams met in Week 3, New York running back Saquon Barkley and quarterback Daniel Jones accounted for 160 rushing yards, the offense committed no turnovers, the defense forced one turnover and … Dallas still won by a touchdown with its backup quarterback.

That was the Cowboys’ third straight victory over the Giants in what has become — as noted earlier — a one-sided rivalry. Not only has Dallas won 10 of the last 11 series clashes, but it is 6-2 ATS as a favorite and has posted seven double-digit wins.

With the direction these teams are headed, there’s no reason to think we won’t see the Cowboys blowout New York again Thursday in Jerry’s World. Lay the big number at BetMGM.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.