NFL conference championship betting trends: Tracking 52 years of history

As we reach the midpoint of NFL conference championship week, the four teams still standing are no doubt ramping up preparations for Sunday’s two games in Philadelphia and Kansas City.

But the players and coaches aren’t the only ones who are taking their pregame work seriously.

So, too, are NFL bettors.

Whether it’s sifting through news reports, crunching raw numbers or running computer simulations, all bettors — professional and amateur — are on the hunt for wagering advantages ahead of 49ers vs. Eagles and Bengals vs. Chiefs.

With that in mind, we did a deep dive into the history books and discovered a handful of interesting trends related to both straight-up and point-spread winners in NFC and AFC championship games.

After oddsmakers opened Philadelphia as a 1.5- to 2-point favorite over San Francisco on Sunday night, the NFC Championship Game betting market seems to have settled at Eagles -2.5.

It’s an interesting number from several perspectives.

First, the 49ers will bring a 12-game winning streak into Lincoln Financial Field. The last time San Francisco tasted defeat: a 44-23 home loss to Kansas City on Oct. 23.

The 49ers also have been fattening the wallets of bettors, as they’ve only failed to cover twice during their heater. In Week 10, they beat the Chargers 22-16 as an 8-point home favorite, and in Week 17 they edged the Raiders 37-34 in overtime as a 9.5-point road chalk.

This week, San Francisco is catching points for just the third time this season. On the other two occasions, the Niners were a 1-point underdog in consecutive weeks against the Chiefs (loss) and Rams (31-14 win).

Meanwhile, the Eagles have been favored in every game but one: They lost 40-34 at Dallas as a 4-point underdog in Week 16 — a game that starting quarterback Jalen Hurts missed with a shoulder injury.

Not only was Philadelphia favored in its other 17 games, but it laid at least 5.5 points in 16 of those contests. The exception: The Eagles were a 3-point home chalk in Week 2 against the Vikings (and rolled to a 24-7 victory).

So the NFC championship game point spread represents the shortest number by which Philly has been favored all year.

» READ MORE: NFL conference championship game odds: Early action favors Eagles, Bengals

This also is the first time in more than a decade — and just the fourth time since the 1988-89 season — that an NFC championship game favorite is giving less than 3 points.

The most recent instance was in 2011-12, when the 49ers were a 2-point home favorite against the New York Giants. New York prevailed 20-17 in overtime.

That result was rare because both home teams and favorites are 34-18 SU in NFC title clashes.

That said, home and road teams have alternated SU victories in the last five years. And underdogs are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS during this stretch.

A year ago, the Rams took down San Francisco 20-17 in Los Angeles, but the 49ers got the cash as a 3.5-point road underdog. It was just the seventh time in NFC Championship Game history that the winner failed to cover.

What about when the point spread is less than 3 in an NFC title game? Favorites are 3-5 SU and ATS. But those three wins came in the last four instances.

As for the 49ers’ and Eagles’ history in NFC title tilts, it’s been a mixed bag for each franchise.

San Francisco is 7-10 SU but 9-8 ATS. However, the 49ers have alternated SU wins and losses in five title games this century (all since 2011-12).

» READ MORE: Philadelphia Eagles odds: How this year’s squad became title contenders

They also have played in consecutive title games five times and only lost both contests once: In 1970-71 and 1971-72, the first two years the NFL played conference championships.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia has reached this point seven times in its history, with six of those coming since 2001-02. The Eagles are 3-4 SU and 4-3 ATS.

The most recent appearance was five years ago, when Philadelphia waxed the Vikings 38-7 as a 3-point home underdog on the way to winning the franchise’s first Super Bowl.

Like San Francisco, both the Bengals and Chiefs are on fire.

Cincinnati, which went to Buffalo and upset the Bills in Sunday’s NFL Divisional Playoff game, has won 10 in a row while covering the spread eight times. In fact, going back to December 2021, the Bengals are on a 20-6 ATS roll, including 5-0 ATS in the playoffs.

Kansas City comes into Sunday having won six in a row (2-4 ATS) and 11 of 12 (4-8 ATS). The lone hiccup for the Chiefs? A 27-24 loss at Cincinnati as a 2.5-point road favorite.

That’s the exact score by which the Bengals defeated the Chiefs in last year’s AFC Championship Game in Kansas City (doing so as a 7-point underdog). Cincinnati also upset the Chiefs 34-31 as a 3.5-point home underdog in Week 17 last year.

That makes Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow 3-0 all time against his K.C. counterpart, Patrick Mahomes.

But that’s not why Cincinnati — at least as of Wednesday afternoon — was a consensus 1-point road favorite for Sunday’s contest. This is: Mahomes suffered a high-ankle sprain in Saturday’s 27-20 home victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Mahomes has vowed to play in his and the Chiefs’ fifth consecutive AFC title game. But the betting market isn’t convinced he’ll be effective. Since the point spread was posted, Kansas City has flipped (multiple times) from a small home favorite to a small home underdog.

» READ MORE: The Eagles’ Nick Sirianni was robbed of NFL coach of the year. Or was he?

If you believe in 52 years of history, it matters which team goes off as the favorite in this contest.

Not so much because the chalk is 38-14 SU and 30-21-1 ATS in AFC Championship Games. Rather, it’s because of this stat: While short favorites (less than 3 points) are just 3-5 SU and ATS all time in NFC title games, they’re a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS in the AFC since the then-Baltimore Colts upset the Oakland Raiders 27-17 as a 1-point home underdog in the first AFC Championship Game in 1970-71.

Then again, the most recent AFC matchup featuring a short line was exactly 30 years ago: In 1992-93, the Bills throttled the Miami Dolphins 29-10 as a 2-point road favorite.

Another historically-related reason why the Bengals and Chiefs should want to take the field Sunday night as the favorite: Cincinnati’s upset of Kansas City in last year’s title game thriller was the fourth time in the last 10 years that the underdog won outright.

However, underdogs haven’t won the AFC title game in consecutive seasons since the turn of the century, when the Titans (1999-2000), Ravens (2000-01) and Patriots (2001-02) turned the trick three straight years.

One good sign for the Chiefs: They’ve alternated SU and ATS wins and losses during their four-year title game run under Mahomes.

Also, the Bengals have not won consecutive AFC titles in franchise history. However, Cincinnati is 3-for-3 when getting to this point, while Kansas City is 3-2 SU and ATS when playing for a trip to the Super Bowl.

Coming Friday: A look at AFC and NFC Championship Game trends related to the Over/Under (i.e., total).

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.