NFL Preseason Week 2 Preview: Eagles vs. Browns odds, picks, prediction

After months of speculation, the Cleveland Browns know they’ll be without starting quarterback Deshaun Watson for 11 regular season games.

Watson reached a settlement with the NFL after the league appealed his initial six-game suspension handed down by former federal judge Sue L. Robinson, who served as the arbitrator in the case.

But with Watson now agreeing to sit out 11 games, the Browns know they have to get their other quarterbacks ready for the start of the season.

On Monday, Browns’ head coach Kevin Stefanski stated that Cleveland’s Week 1 starter, Jacoby Brissett, won’t play on Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles.

But with Watson’s suspension now confirmed, I’m starting to wonder if he’ll walk those words back.

As for the Eagles, I’ve yet to see anything definitive on whether Jalen Hurts will play in the game. Even if he misses out, I think Garder Minshew is capable enough to be productive in his own right.

Generally, we tend to get a ton of line movement as news about the coaches’ game plans is made public. And while that would explain the dip in the total, I’m not sure it’s entirely warranted in this instance.

Moneyline: PHI (-140) vs. CLE (+120)

Spread: PHI -3 (-105) vs. CLE +3 (-115)

Total: Over 35.5 (-110) | Under 35.5 (-110)

I can’t stress enough how much preseason wagering is primarily based on information. We didn’t see much movement early on for this game after the Eagles opened as a three-point favorite.

And if bettors expect the game to remain somewhat competitive, I’m starting to wonder whether it might lead to points in this matchup.

The highest total I saw for this game was 41, and in a matter of days, it’s already down to 35.5. However, based on my research, that line move strikes me as a bit too aggressive.

In the Browns’ first preseason game, I was impressed with what I saw from Josh Dobbs as he completed 10 of 13 passes for 108 yards and a touchdown. Rosen also moved the ball well, completing six of seven passes for 56 yards.

One thing I’ll be looking for in this game will be whether Philadelphia can slow down Cleveland’s rushing attack. Not enough attention in the preseason is given to the running game, especially with teams opting to play multiple quarterbacks in their games.

Teams with a strong foundation in running the ball are undervalued during the preseason because there are often fewer passing plays.

For example, I think it’s one of the reasons the Ravens have won 21 straight preseason games because no matter who they bring into the game, their principles remain the same.

The Browns are certainly one team that fits that mold, given how well Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt have performed over the years. Since 2017, Cleveland is 14-2 straight up in the preseason, and it’s also on a five=-game winning streak in this spot.

Rookie running back Jeremy Ford is trying to play his way into Stefanski’s plans after rushing for 57 yards on ten carries against the Jaguars.

Ford could relish his chances against an Eagles team that gave up 199 yards on the ground against the Jets.

If we turn to the Eagles, I think they’ll continue to be aggressive throwing the ball, especially since they’re a little banged up at running back with Miles Sanders nursing a hamstring injury.

Philadelphia threw the ball 35 times against the Jets, ten more pass attempts than the Browns against the Jaguars.

I did some checking, and according to our Action Labs database, preseason games with a total of 35.5 or lower are 186-149-6 for a profit of 27.19 units.

Moreover, this angle is currently on a 9-1 run.

It’s not often that you play an over, and it’s a contrarian opinion, but this spot feels like the right time to take such an approach.

Over 35.5

Bonus play: Browns +3

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