Ravens vs. Bengals prediction: Baltimore on upset alert in AFC North duel

Entering the season, the AFC North looked like one of the toughest divisions in football with the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals among three legitimate title contenders. Four weeks into the year, it’s a logjam at the top, but not exactly in the way we expected.

The Ravens and Bengals are two of the three teams in the division with a 2-2 record, and neither has lived up to expectation ahead of their Week 5 clash in Baltimore. Which of these teams can emerge Sunday with a victory and a share of the division lead?

Here’s how we’re betting Sunday night’s contest, which kicks off at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.

This is easily one of the toughest matchups to bet all season, in part because it’s hard to know exactly which squads will show up on either side on Sunday.

In some ways, the Ravens have looked like one of the best teams in football through the first four weeks of the season. They own the league’s seventh-best scoring differential (+19) and have led on average by 5.83 points, second behind only the undefeated Eagles. Their two wins have both come by double digits, and they’ve trailed for a combined 14 seconds in their two losses at home.

Of course, that only tells part of the story. Those two losses came after epic second-half collapses of 17 and 21 points, respectively, both fueled by serious breakdowns defensively and a stagnant offense that seemingly can’t move the ball in crucial spots. That last part is especially curious: the Ravens rank first in offensive DVOA and fourth in points per drive (2.67), yet they rank just 10th in offensive drive success rate (73.3%) and 12th in third-down conversion rate (40.4%).

In essence, this offense has become too reliant on Lamar Jackson scrambles and bail-out throws to top receivers Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman – the latter of whom won’t play Sunday with a foot injury. That’s a big deal for Baltimore, which is averaging 0.14 expected points added on 88 passing attempts with the second-year wideout on the field and -0.18 EPA/attempt in 36 attempts without him.

Conversely, the Bengals looked lost early in the season after a storybook run to the Super Bowl a year ago, but they’ve rallied with a pair of double-digit wins ahead of Sunday’s matchup. The key has been their resurgent defense, which quietly ranked in the top seven in yards allowed per drive (30.59) and points allowed per drive (1.88) in 2021. They’ve upped the stakes this year, ranking second in points allowed per drive (1.37) and opponent drive success rate (62.8%).

The big question is whether Joe Burrow and co. can take advantage of this beleaguered Ravens secondary, which has collapsed late in both of its matchups against high-level passers. It’s risky betting against Jackson amid an MVP-level campaign, but with Baltimore facing injury woes and a whole host of underlying issues late in games, the Bengals are a worthwhile bet as live road underdogs.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.