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Ravens vs. Bucs odds, predictions: Four Thursday Night Football prop picks

Bet on Lamar Jackson’s legs and against Tom Brady’s arm

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (right) stiff-arms Cleveland Browns linebacker Deion Jones during last week's game in Baltimore. Jackson heads into Thursday's game at Tampa Bay ranked fifth in the NFL in rushing with 510 yards. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (right) stiff-arms Cleveland Browns linebacker Deion Jones during last week's game in Baltimore. Jackson heads into Thursday's game at Tampa Bay ranked fifth in the NFL in rushing with 510 yards. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)Read moreRob Carr / Getty Images

Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can pile up yards through the air but can’t run a lick.

Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens can ground-and-pound you to death, but their aerial assault lacks precision.

And in recent weeks, both teams have treated the goal line like there’s a deadly plague on the other side of it. How does all of this shape our prop betting strategy for an intriguing Week 8 Thursday Night Football clash in Tampa Bay? Read on for our four favorite Ravens vs. Bucs prop bets.

Note: Odds updated as of 10 p.m. ET on Oct. 26.

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Ravens vs. Bucs prop: Tom Brady total passing touchdowns

  1. Odds: 1.5, Over -160/Under +120 (at BetMGM)

  2. Prediction: Under

A season ago, Brady could’ve found the end zone while blindfolded. He connected on an NFL-best 43 touchdown passes, the second-highest total in his decorated 22-year career.

In year No. 23, though, Brady has needed a GPS to direct him to the end zone. He has just eight TDs in seven games — compared with 21 at this point last year — and has only once tossed for multiple scores. (He had three in a blowout loss to Kansas City in Week 4.)

In fairness to Brady, his wide receivers have spent more time on the trainer’s table than the gridiron. And he has no running game to rely on (Tampa Bay ranks dead last in the NFL in rushing). While these might be legitimate excuses, Brady’s TD numbers don’t lie.

Neither do these: In eight career games against the Ravens (from 2004-2019), Brady has thrown multiple touchdowns just twice. While with the Patriots, had three in a 30-23 home win in 2016 and two in a 27-24 victory in his historic 2007 campaign.

As for this year’s Ravens’ pass defense... well, it ain’t great. Baltimore has surrendered the fourth-most passing TDs in the league (13). However, that secondary has been much better lately, giving up just 192.3 passing yards and three TDs in the last four games after surrendering 353.3 passing yards and 10 TDs in the first three contests.

With several of Brady’s key weapons dinged up (including wideout Mike Evans), look for Brady to have Under 1.5 touchdown throws at BetMGM.

» READ MORE: NFL odds, predictions: Should you bet the Eagles to go 17-0?

Ravens vs. Bucs prop: Lamar Jackson total rushing yards

  1. Odds: 60.5, Over -115/Under -115 (at BetMGM)

  2. Prediction: Over

Jackson had a roller-coaster start to the season from a rushing perspective. After gaining just 17 yards in a blowout Week 1 victory at the Jets, the Ravens’ dynamic quarterback bolted for 119 and 107 yards against the Dolphins and Patriots, respectively.

Since then, however, Jackson’s rushing numbers have been pretty consistent: 73 (vs. Buffalo), 58 (vs. Cincinnati), 77 (at Giants) and 59 (vs. Cleveland).

This week, Jackson faces an opponent that has seen two mobile quarterbacks so far in 2022: Patrick Mahomes and Marcus Mariota. Those two combined for 95 yards on just 11 carries — a whopping 8.6 yards per tote. And we can agree that neither is as dangerous with his feet as Jackson.

Overall, Tampa’s once-feared front seven is feared no more. Last week, the Carolina Panthers — without Christian McCaffrey — blitzed the Bucs for 173 rushing yards. It was the third time in four weeks that Tampa had yielded at least 150 yards on the ground.

Now they’re tasked with containing the NFL’s most lethal dual-threat quarterback — one who ranks fifth among all players in rushing? Good luck with that.

Look for Jackson to rack up at least 75 rushing yards. Bet Over 61.5 at BetMGM.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

Ravens vs. Bucs prop: Lamar Jackson total completions

  1. Odds: 19.5, Over -110/Under -120 (at BetMGM)

  2. Prediction: Under

If you’re thinking this Bucs-Ravens prop directly correlates to the one directly above it, you’re right.

With Jackson leading the NFL’s fifth-ranked rushing attack (156.3 yards per game) against a banged-up defense that has given up an average of 147.5 rushing yards in the last four games, it makes complete sense for Baltimore keep the pigskin on the ground.

Even when Jackson does drop back, it’s unlikely he’ll make a lot of connections. As we noted in our Ravens vs. Bucs betting preview, Jackson is completing just 61.4% of his passes. That ranks below the likes of Davis Mills, Andy Dalton, Jacoby Brissett, Jared Goff and Carson Wentz.

Also, the Bucs’ run defense might resemble a piece of Swiss cheese, but its pass defense has held up to the tune of 190 passing yards per game allowed (sixth fewest in the NFL).

Granted, Tampa’s secondary is decimated by injuries (among them, Pro Bowl safety Antonine Winfield Jr. is doubtful with a concussion). However, Jackson isn’t the type of quarterback who will exploit that.

As it is, the 2019 NFL MVP has completed more than 19 passes just twice in seven games — he had 20 against Buffalo and 21 against Miami. Also, it’s been a steady decline for Jackson in the completion department the last four weeks: 20, 19, 17 and just nine on Sunday against the Browns.

Bank on Jackson finishing with 15 to 17 completions in Tampa Bay. Play Under 19.5 at BetMGM.

Ravens vs. Bucs prop: Justin Tucker total field goals

  1. Odds: 1.5, Over -140/Under +105 (at BetMGM)

  2. Prediction: Over

The greatest kicker in NFL history definitely has lived up to that moniker in 2022.

Tucker is 14-for-15 on field goal attempts this season (and 19-for-20 on extra-points). He’s made at least one field goal in each of Baltimore’s first seven games, splitting the uprights multiple times in the last four contests.

The Ravens have needed all of those kicks, too. Five of their last six games (including the last four in a row) were decided by four points or less. We wouldn’t be surprised to see another nail-biter Thursday, which means we wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of Tucker trotting onto the field.

Baltimore has scored 82 points over the last four games. Tucker’s right leg was responsible for nearly half that total (40 points).

Because Tucker is so automatic — and because the weather conditions in Tampa are expected to be ideal Thursday night — he really only needs two opportunities to hit this prop. That shouldn’t be a problem, given that the Tucker has four more field goals the last four games (11) than the Ravens have touchdowns (seven).

Lay the juice at BetMGM and roll with Tucker Over 1.5 field goals.

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