Ravens vs. Bucs odds, prediction: Keep fading Brady, Tampa Bay

NFL fans and bettors were treated to the following Thursday Night Football quarterback matchups the past three weeks: Matt Ryan vs. Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz vs. Justin Fields and Andy Dalton vs. Kyler Murray.

This week: It’s Lamar Jackson and the Ravens vs. Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.

Hallelujah, right? Not so fast.

Jackson has had an uneven season to this point, and Brady all of a sudden is playing like the 45-year-old relic that he is. As a result, what many thought would be a potential Super Bowl preview is instead a matchup of two squads sporting a combined 7-7 record.

Still, it’s two marquee teams (and quarterbacks) duking it out under the prime-time spotlight. So you better believe we have a wagering opinion. Here’s how we’re betting Ravens vs. Buccaneers, which kicks off Week 8 of the NFL campaign.

Odds updated as of 10:30 a.m. ET on Oct. 26.

Just when you thought things couldn’t possibly get any worse for Tampa Bay following a stunning 20-18 loss to the lowly Steelers in Week 6, along came Week 7 and … things got worse. Much, much worse.

Facing a Carolina Panthers team that was 1-5, down to its third-string quarterback and without its most dangerous offensive weapon (Christian McCaffrey) after he was traded 72 hours before kickoff, Brady and the Bucs managed a measly field goal in a 21-3 loss.

Tampa Bay went off as a 13-point favorite at Carolina and a 9.5-point favorite at Pittsburgh. Which means the Bucs have been favored by more points (22.5) the past two weeks than they have scored (21).

In fact, discard a 41-31 home loss to Kansas City in Week 4 and Tampa Bay is averaging 15.5 points per game this year. As for Brady, he has 13 fewer touchdown passes this season (8) than he had at this point last season (21).

No wonder the betting market couldn’t wait to fade Tampa Bay this week. Even though Brady hasn’t lost three straight games in more than 20 years spanning more than 300 starts, early action on Baltimore sent the point spread flipping from Bucs -1 to Ravens -1.5.

Then again, it’s not like the Ravens are lighting the world on fire. Baltimore, which held off Cleveland 23-20 but failed to cash as a 6.5-point home favorite in Week 7, has alternated SU wins and losses all season. Dial things back to 2021, and John Harbaugh’s squad hasn’t won consecutive games in 11 months (a stretch of 13 contests).

» READ MORE: NFL odds, predictions: Should you bet the Eagles to go 17-0?

Thanks in large part to Jackson’s inaccuracy — he ranks near the bottom of the league in completion rate (61.4%) and interceptions (six) — the Ravens’ offense has completely stagnated. After scoring 24, 38 and 37 points in the first three games, Baltimore is averaging 20.5 in the last four.

Despite all those negative marks on the Ravens’ ledger, they’re still the right side in this game. There’s simply no way you can trust Brady and the Bucs right now, especially since the offensive line remains a mess and the team is riddled with injuries on both sides of the ball.

If not for Jackson’s complete meltdown late in the fourth quarter of a 24-20 loss at the Giants two weeks ago, Baltimore would be 3-0 on the road this season. They also would be coming into this game on a three-game winning streak and laying at least a field goal. So our money is on the Ravens to get the job done Thursday night.

However, Baltimore has been involved in four straight tight games decided by 3, 2, 4 and 3 points. So we’re playing it cautious, taking the point spread out of the picture and betting the Ravens on the moneyline at BetMGM.

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