Saints vs. Cardinals Props: Bet against Kyler Murray tossing an INT

After back-to-back Thursday Night Football clunkers in which four teams combined for two touchdowns and 40 total points in nearly 70 minutes of non-action, NFL bettors have come to embrace a new acronym: TGFP.

Thank God for Props!

With another low-scoring affair expected in the Week 7 lid-lifter between the New Orleans Saints and Arizona Cardinals, the Thursday Night Football props market figures to be buzzing again as bettors across the land try to remain engaged (and awake) for all four quarters.

Here are our five favorite Saints vs. Cardinals prop bets for Thursday’s NFC duel in the desert.

Note: All numbers and odds updated as of 9:30 p.m. ET on Oct. 19.

Murray hasn’t done much to silence the offseason narrative that he prefers to spend more time playing video games than studying film during game weeks. He has a middling 83.1 quarterback rating and a 7-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. That includes exactly one pick in each of the last three games (after tossing just one in his first 141 pass attempts).

So why side with the Under on this prop? Because with a short week, it’s likely that Arizona coach Kliff Kingsbury will simplify the offensive game plan and play to Murray’s greatest strengths. That should mean a lot of safe, short throws, including several to Murray’s security blanket: wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who is returning from a six-game suspension.

Most importantly, the Saints’ defense has seen 193 passes thrown its way this season. It has intercepted exactly one of them (Tyrann Mathieu thieved Kirk Cousins in London three weeks ago). Just as key: Murray won’t have to deal with Marshon Lattimore, the Saints’ stud cornerback who has been ruled out with an abdominal injury.

Play Murray Under 0.5 interceptions at -106 odds at Caesars Sportsbook.

As noted above, Hopkins is sure to see a bunch of targets in his first NFL game in more than a year (especially with fellow wideout Hollywood Brown out with an injury). He may even catch a bunch of those targets. Just don’t expect him to break loose for big gains.

In addition to the obvious rust factor, there’s the stats factor: In his last 12 contests dating back to the penultimate game of the 2020 season, Hopkins has amassed more than 60 yards just four times. That includes just once in his last six home games.

The Saints only rank in the middle of the pack in passing defense (222 yards per game, 16th). But even without Lattimore, it’s difficult to imagine they won’t be hyper-focused on containing Hopkins. (It’s also difficult to imagine Kingsbury calling a lot of deep shots.)

Bet on Hopkins to stay Under 60.5 receiving yards at -113 odds at FanDuel.

This Thursday Night Football props prediction has more to do with the teammates who won’t be next to Olave on the line of scrimmage than Olave himself.

After missing last week’s game against Cincinnati while in concussion protocol, Olave has been cleared to return to action om Arizona. However, two veteran wideouts won’t be alongside him. Michael Thomas (toe) and Jarvis Landry (ankle) both have been ruled out. That means more targets for Olave, who leads the team in receptions (25) and receiving yards (389) despite not playing last week.

While the former Ohio State star has eclipsed 4.5 catches in just two of five contests, he landed right on four twice (including in Week 5 against Seattle when he suffered the concussion on a touchdown reception early in the second half).

Roll with Olave Over 4.5 receptions at +105 odds at BetMGM.

The Saints’ do-everything weapon certainly isn’t to blame for his team’s 2-4 start to the season. The former BYU quarterback has played in five of six games and piled up 267 rushing yards (10.3 per carry) and scored five touchdowns. He’s also 3-for-5 passing with another touchdown.

Hill has topped this rushing prop number in three of his five games, including the last two (112 yards vs. Seattle; 39 yards vs. Cincinnati).

Much like Olave’s reception prop, backing Hill here has a lot to do with Thomas and Landry being on the sidelines. Saints coach Dennis Allen knows the only way to win a road game on a short week when you’re shorthanded is to get the ball in the hands of those playmakers who are on the field.

Hill definitely qualifies as a playmaker. He’s also a nightmare to game plan for, because you never know when or where Allen will deploy him.

Take Hill Over 31.5 rushing yards at -113 odds at FanDuel.

New Orleans’ defense isn’t exactly the second coming of the 1985 Chicago Bears. The Saints have surrendered at least 20 points in all six games, giving up 26 or more four times and 28 or more each of the past three weeks.

But it’s not like Murray and the Cardinals’ offense has been short-circuiting the scoreboard. They were abysmal in last week’s 19-9 loss at Seattle; they had 10 points in the first 58 minutes of a 20-17 home loss to the Eagles in Week 5; and they managed just four field goals in a 20-12 home loss to the Rams in Week 3.

In fact, more than half of Arizona’s points this season (59 of 114) have been confined to four quarters: 16 points in the fourth quarter at Carolina; 29 points in the second half and overtime at Las Vegas; and 14 meaningless fourth-quarter points in a 44-21 Week 1 home loss to Kansas City.

Going back to last season (playoffs included), the Cardinals have scored fewer than 24 points in 10 of their last 15 games — including seven of eight at home.

Play Arizona Under 23.5 total team points at -120 odds at Caesars Sportsbook.

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