Titans vs. Chiefs odds, predictions: Lay big points with Kansas City

It’s been said that death and taxes are the only guarantees in life. Anyone who has followed the NFL for the last quarter century will tell you there’s one more thing you can count on: Andy Reid’s teams winning after a bye week.

The Philadelphia Eagles-turned-Kansas City Chiefs head coach owns a 20-3 record whenever his teams have enjoyed a week’s respite. We mention this because the Chiefs are coming off their bye heading into a Week 9 Sunday Night Football clash against the Tennessee Titans.

Of course, just because Reid’s teams have great success on the field following a week off doesn’t mean they’re a lock to cover the point spread. And Sunday night’s Tennessee-Kansas City point spread is through the roof, with the Chiefs a 12.5-point home favorite.

Will that big number — and the fact the Titans have won and covered their last five games — keep us off Kansas City? Nope. Here’s how we’re betting Titans vs. Chiefs on Sunday Night Football.

Note: Odds updated as of 12:45 p.m. ET on Nov. 4.

Every statistical and historical trend associated with this Sunday Night Football game screams one thing: Take the points with red-hot Tennessee.

During their five-game SU and ATS roll, the Titans are allowing 15.2 points per game (including 17 or fewer each of the last four weeks); they’re 3-for-3 on the road (including two victories by a touchdown each); and they’ve sprung two outright upsets.

Perhaps more important than all that, Tennessee has flat-out owned both Reid and the Chiefs. The Titans are 9-2 all time against Reid, including five straight upset wins over K.C. in the regular season. And three of those came at Arrowhead Stadium.

On top of that, there’s this: Kansas City is 0-3 ATS at home this season and a ho-hum 7-5 ATS following a bye in Reid’s tenure.

So why would we recommend ignoring every bit of that? A bunch of reasons, starting with this indisputable fact: Tennessee hasn’t beaten anyone this season.

The Titans’ five victims during their current winning streak were the Raiders, Colts (twice), Commanders and Texans. Their first two opponents of the season — Giants and Bills — are the only two that have winning records. And Tennessee lost to New York 21-20 (home) and Buffalo 41-7 (road).

More than anything, though, this comes down to personnel, as well as one team’s ability to exploit an opponent’s weakness and the other not being able to do the same.

Behind superstar running back Derrick Henry, the Titans love to run the ball. And because of Henry, they run it well. One problem: This week, they’re running up against the Chiefs’ brick wall of a defense that ranks third in the NFL against the rush.

» READ MORE: Week 9 NFL betting trends: Unbeaten Eagles also among most profitable teams

That same defense is horrendous against the pass, allowing the third-most passing yards and a league-high 17 touchdowns. But Tennessee has quarterback issues. Ryan Tannehill (ankle) missed last week’s game in Houston and was limited in practice this week.

If Tannehill plays, his mobility (one of his few strengths) will be severely limited. If he doesn’t play, it’s a second straight week of rookie Malik Willis, who went 6-for-10 for 55 yards in his first NFL start last Sunday against the Texans. (Yes, he played all four quarters.)

One thing the Chiefs don’t have, of course, is quarterback concerns. Patrick Mahomes is rested and will have access to his full complement of weapons. Mahomes will be facing a Titans defense that ranks right ahead of Kansas City against the run (only the 49ers have been better) but in the bottom 10 against the pass.

That bottom-10 ranking looks much worse when you realize five of the six quarterbacks the Titans have gone up against are named Daniel Jones, Derek Carr, Matt Ryan (twice), Carson Wentz and Davis Mills.

The sixth quarterback? That would be Buffalo’s Josh Allen, who merely threw for 317 yards and four TDs in that 41-7 beatdown in Week 2.

Put it all together and four words come to mind: Bad matchup for Tennessee.

Don’t sweat the big points, as K.C. will once again deliver a victory after a bye — this one by at least three touchdowns.

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