Back undervalued Flyers Tuesday night vs. Blues

On the eve of the start of the 2022-23 NHL season, the Philadelphia Flyers were projected to finish with the fourth-lowest point total in the league — some 22 fewer than what was forecast for the St. Louis Blues.

Fast-forward one month, and the Flyers are among the NHL’s biggest surprises with a 6-3-2 record, good for 14 points. The Blues? Since opening the season with three straight wins, they’ve lost seven in a row. And their six points are tied with Columbus for fewest among the league’s 32 teams.

So of course Philadelphia is favored heading into Tuesday’s home game against St. Louis — especially with the Flyers rested and the slumping Blues playing the second night of a back-to-back … right?

Nope.

Despite being the NHL’s third-most profitable team overall and fourth-most profitable at home, the Flyers are underdogs against an opponent that slots 28th in the overall money standings. Are oddsmakers setting a trap with these Blues vs. Flyers odds? If so, we’re falling right into it. Here’s how we see Tuesday’s game playing out from a wagering perspective.

Note: Odds updated as of 11:15 a.m. ET on Nov. 8.

Not sure what Philadelphia needs to do to get some respect in the NHL betting market. First-year coach John Tortorella’s team has no-showed just twice this season, and both instances came on the back end of a back-to-back and with its backup goaltender in net.

The Flyers fell 3-0 at home to San Jose on Oct. 23 a day after upsetting Nashville. Then last week, they got pushed around in a 5-2 loss at Toronto just 24 hours after a tense, 1-0 overtime defeat at the Rangers.

Philadelphia rebounded from the Maple Leafs setback with Saturday’s 2-1 win at Ottawa. Once again, the Flyers cashed as a sizeable underdog (all but one of their victories has come at a plus-price). And once again, the main reason was goaltender Carter Hart.

The 21-year-old Canadian turned aside 33 of 34 shots, marking the sixth time in eight starts that he’s allowed two goals or fewer. Hart sports a spectacular 1.97 goals-against average and .946 save percentage.

After a nice two-day break in his home country — and with another two-day break coming after Tuesday’s game — Hart will be between the pipes against the Blues. That’s tremendous news for Philadelphia backers, because the 2016 second-round draft pick has yet to lose a game in regulation (six wins, two overtime losses).

Hart definitely has been less dominant at home (10 goals allowed in four games) than on the road (four goals in four games). But he’s facing a lackluster Blues attack that has put the puck in the net just 22 times in 10 games.

» READ MORE: Former Flyers captain Claude Giroux reunited with old teammates and ‘didn’t really miss a beat’

St. Louis, which fell 3-1 at the Bruins on Monday, has potted two goals or fewer in seven of its last eight contests, including four straight as a visitor. And while the Flyers’ offense is no great shakes, ranking 30th with an average of 2.55 goals per contest, that’s still better than the Blues, who are dead last at 2.20 goals per game.

Another advantage for Philly: Jordan Binnington, St. Louis’ No. 1 netminder, played last night in Boston. That means backup Thomas Greiss almost certainly will make his third start on Tuesday. How did the first two go? 4-0 loss at Winnipeg and 6-2 loss at Nashville, with Greiss surrendering eight of those 10 goals.

That latter game was the second of a back-to-back, the only one the Blues have played so far. And keep in mind that the Predators entered that contest having scored a total of nine goals in their previous six games (all losses).

So, yeah, we are all over the rested and undervalued Flyers in this spot and at this price that Caesars Sportsbook is offering. Look for Hart to shine once again and for Philadelphia to win a low-scoring game.

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