Back the Stars to take Western Conference Finals series against Oilers

Whichever team ultimately comes out of the West, the conference will be represented by a highly deserving side in the Stanley Cup Final.

The Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars entered the NHL playoffs as consensus co-favorites to win the conference and were clearly deserving to be in this spot after their respective series wins in the first two rounds.

Despite earning the top seed in West, the Stars have already had to eliminate two undisputed Cup contenders. They bested the defending champion Golden Knights in a gritty seven-game series, before taking out the 2022 champion Avalanche in six games.

The Stars feature one of the most well-balanced rosters in recent memory, and it has looked as such throughout an impressive start to the postseason. They boast four quality offensive lines littered with significant scoring upside, including eight players who netted 21 or more goals this season.

Dallas scored 2.92 goals per game this season, seventh-best in the league. While that mark was well below the Oilers’ lofty 3.83 per-game average, the Stars were the superior defensive side, allowing only 2.38 goals per game.

The status of the Stars’ top line center, Roope Hintz, is uncertain, as he is listed as day-to-day and has missed the last two games. While Hintz has not produced the kind of offense he was expected to this postseason, he is an excellent two-way player who is used in every situation.

Dallas’ top two defensive pairings give it an excellent chance to try and keep the Oilers’ high-powered superstars in check. Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Harley compose an extremely mobile top unit, which can drive offense and limit opponents chances.

Deadline acquisition Chris Tanev and Esa Lindell formed an elite shutdown unit, which did a masterful job of keeping the superstars for Vegas and Colorado in check. That duo could prove to be a massive edge if they can do the same in this series given the Oilers lack of offensive depth.

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Edmonton has benefitted from entering the playoffs in an easier spot in the bracket. The Oilers sailed past an offensively stale Los Angeles Kings side in just five games in the first round, before struggling to get through a Canucks team that also did not seem overly legitimate.

The fact that Edmonton took seven games to get through the Canucks is a key argument from most non-believers entering this matchup versus a much tougher Stars side.

The Oilers generated far more chances throughout the entirety of the series though, as evidenced by a 54.08 xGF%. They limited the Canucks to just 21.31 shots per 60, and the series likely would never have gone close to seven games if not for subpar goaltending from Stuart Skinner in the first three games.

Perhaps the most significant factor in determining the result in the Western Conference finals is going to be how wide the goaltending disparity actually ends up being between Jake Oettinger and Skinner. Oettinger has been fabulous this postseason with a +5.2 GSAx and .918 save %, while Skinner has struggled to a -2.1 GSAx and .881 save percentage.

Despite still recording eight points in the series, Connor McDavid did not appear to be at his best, particularly in the final three games. That’s quite a concern because he and Leon Draisaitl are going to need to be at their most dominant if the Oilers are going to steal this series, because the Oilers are clearly fighting an uphill battle in terms of overall depth.

The Stars have been excellent in all areas of the ice this postseason, which is well reflected by a 59.17% expected goal share. That mark paces all 16 playoff teams, despite facing the toughest schedule.

It’s fair to say the Oilers deserve more credit than they are getting for their play this postseason, but at the same time note that they do hold a lot of potential flaws compared to Stars, who have next to none.

There is value betting the Stars to win this series at anything better than -135.

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