Bet on the Panthers to take Game 1 against the Rangers in the Eastern Conference Finals

Game 1 of a highly anticipated Eastern Conference Final will get under way Wednesday at Madison Square Garden.

The Presidents Trophy-winning New York Rangers are once again an underdog, as they are priced at +125 to get past a well-constructed Florida Panthers team.

The Rangers closed at a comparable price tag entering their series against the Hurricanes. Their passionate fanbase created a significant uproar over that fact, and ultimately the team did prove oddsmakers wrong.

However, their underlying metrics continue to be the reason oddsmakers are low on them relative to the other remaining teams.

Odds via FanDuel

The Rangers have played to an expected goal share of just 48.38% this postseason, and have generated just 24.98 shots per 60 compared to their opponents 30.69 average.

The Rangers do have avenues to cover up for a lesser control of the play though. They excel at creating highly dangerous chances with strong East-West passing, which can lead to chances that go underrated by public models. They boast a historically strong power play and feature the ultimate equalizer in goal with Igor Shesterkin.

There’s more to hockey than numbers can illustrate, but expected goals data has been a highly effective indicator of Stanley Cup champions. Of the 17 seasons that EvolvingHockey has playoff expected goals data available, the 2014-15 Blackhawks are the only team to win the cup with an xGF% below 50 (49.56%).

The Rangers do deserve a lot of credit for their series win over the Hurricanes. They were deserving six-game winners over an elite side, and it was more than Shesterkin’s dominance that earned the wins. However, it’s not saying the Rangers are fraudulent to point out that they are deserving of an underdog price tag in this series.

The Panthers feature three excellent offensive lines which can generate offense at a better-than-average rate while being accountable defensively. Selke Trophy winner Aleksander Barkov heads a top unit that can shut down other opposing stars while generating plenty at the other end, while Matthew Tkachuk teams up with Carter Verhaeghe to provide serious scoring upside to the second line.

Florida has a highly mobile defense core, which can effectively jump up in the rush and take quality shots from the blue line.

The Panthers feature strong special teams of their own, and if they can lean on their excellent penalty kill to keep the Rangers power play somewhat in check, their superior even-strength play should win them the series.

They have played to a 56.58% expected goal share this postseason. Sergei Bobrovsky has been strong when called upon, with a +2.8 GSAx and .902 save percentage. He is one significant reason the Rangers are now getting into a far tougher series than they had versus Carolina, as Frederik Andersen’s middling play is not likely to be replicated by Bobrovsky.

» READ MORE: Back the Rangers against the Panthers in the ECF and a big series from Vladimir Tarasenko

Road teams are 85-71 over the last two NHL postseasons, and have been extremely profitable (+14.7% ROI) because oddsmakers continue to price in plenty of home-ice advantage.

MSG likely provides a greater-than-average advantage to the Rangers, but don’t count on the Panthers being intimidated. They are 4-1 on the road this postseason, and went 8-4 on the road in last season’s run to the Cup Final.

Florida is -150 to win the series, and I believe rightfully so. Home ice seems to be overweighted in Wednesday’s prices, and I believe the Panthers deserve to be favorites in this matchup.

Bet Florida to take Game 1 at anything better than -115.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.