Penn State Big Ten odds: Are the Nittany Lions worth a shot?

It’s fair to be excited about the start to Penn State’s season. Sitting at 3-0 with road wins over Purdue and Auburn, the Nittany Lions look like they could be better than expected, which was a team with an Over/Under of 8.5 wins and +1600 odds to win the Big Ten.

While Penn State looks to be well on their way to cashing the Over 8.5 with home games against Central Michigan, Northwestern, Minnesota and Maryland, plus road games at Indiana and Rutgers remaining on their schedule, winning the Big Ten still seems to be a bit of a stretch.

Still, oddsmakers have shortened Penn State’s odds to win the Big Ten title from +1600 to +1000 at FanDuel. Considering their start and the fact that they looked terrific on the road at Auburn, that number may seem tempting. But does it actually have value?

Let’s take a look.

The Nittany Lions have plenty of winnable games left on the schedule, but to get to the Big Ten Championship, they’ll need to win at least one (probably both) of their games against Michigan (away) and Ohio State (home). According to Collin Wilson’s Action Network Power Ratings, he’d make Michigan about an 8.5-point favorite at home against Penn State and Ohio State about a 10-point favorite in Happy Valley. Those spreads roughly equate to moneylines of around +280 and +320, respectively.

While it’s not a lock that Penn State will need to beat Ohio State and Michigan to get into the Big Ten title game, it does seem a pretty safe bet. And if you were to throw those two moneylines into a parlay, you’d get odds of +1460, which is considerably higher than the +1000 being offered on the Nittany Lions to win the Big Ten right now.

This isn’t to discourage anyone from betting Penn State to win the Big Ten. Rather, it’s to offer a better path. If you want to get the best value out of a bet on Penn State to win the Big Ten, you could do a version of a rolling parlay.

Here’s an example:

Assuming Penn State defeats Northwestern, you’d place a bet — let’s say $10 for this exercise — on the Nittany Lions to beat Michigan. Assuming that moneyline is around +280, you’d get $38 (stake + winnings) back. Then (assuming Penn State beats Minnesota) you’d place that $38 on Penn State to beat Ohio State at around +320.

That would net you $121.60. When you add the $38 to that, you’d be sitting with $159.60 (net $149.60) off your original $10 stake. And then, assuming Penn State wins out and makes it to the Big Ten Championship, you can place that $159.60 on the Nittany Lions moneyline in the showpiece game.

A lot would have to go right for this “rolling parlay” to come through and it’s just hypothetical at this point, but it is worth keeping this strategy in mind if Penn State finds itself undefeated heading to the Big House in a few weeks.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.