Phillies vs. Astros Prediction: Can Philadelphia punch its ticket to October?

The job isn’t done yet for the Philadelphia Phillies, but the odds are certainly in their favor. After drubbing the Nationals, 8-1, on Sunday and watching the Marlins upset the Brewers on the same day, the magic number for Philadelphia to clinch a playoff berth is down to one.

That means the Phillies need just one win from their three-game set against the Houston Astros, or one loss from the Brewers against the Diamondbacks, to punch their ticket to the tournament.

The Phillies are slight underdogs to get the job done in Space City on Monday night.

Aaron Nola will be the first man up to get the chance to pitch the Phillies into the postseason for the first time since 2011. It would be a fitting chapter in Nola’s terrific career, as the 29-year-old has never made it to the playoffs. He is the longest-tenured player on the Phillies.

Although it’s been a terrific season for Nola, he does come into this start in some interesting form. Not including his outing on Sept. 11, when he only lasted two innings, Nola has basically alternated gems and duds over his last six outings. Three of the starts in that span were absolute pearlers that saw the former LSU Tiger allow just one run on 15 hits in 21.2 combined innings. The other three, not so much. In those appearances, Nola allowed 16 runs on 22 hits and three home runs in 17 innings.

But, as has been the case all season with Nola, his actual results in that seven-game sample lag behind his underlying metrics. Over his last seven starts, Nola owns a 3.76 ERA in 40.2 innings of work. According to his xFIP, that number should be closer to 2.31.

It’s a similar story when you look at Nola’s season-long metrics. To date, Nola has posted a 3.36 ERA in 198 innings of work, but his expected indicators show that he’s really pitched closer to a sub-3.00 ERA. Nola owns a 2.81 xERA and 2.80 xFIP on the season and his batted ball data is superb. According to StatCast, Nola ranks in the 92nd percentile in hard hit rate this season.

» READ MORE: How much did Milwaukee’s losses impact Phillies’ wild card odds?

The Astros offense is always a scary assignment, but Nola’s A-game is strong enough to keep Philadelphia in this game.

And while Nola is due for some positive regression, the opposite is true of his opponent on Monday night. Lance McCullers Jr. has been terrific since making his season debut in August, but his 2.38 ERA is a bit of smoke and mirrors when you look at his peripheral metrics. Over 41.2 innings of work, McCullers owns a 3.57 xERA and 3.67 xFIP, which tells you that he’s been the beneficiary of some good fortune this season.

The disparity between these two bullpens is stark -- Houston’s leads the MLB with a 2.79 ERA, while Philadelphia ranks 23rd -- so rather than play the full-game moneyline, bettors can isolate a pitching matchup and play the Phillies on the first 5 innings moneyline at -105.

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