Phillies vs. Cubs betting preview: Wheeler and Stroman should dominate

Two weeks ago it looked like it was just a matter of time before the Philadelphia Phillies punched their ticket to October. But things change quickly in baseball and a 3-7 stretch for the Phils has landed them in a true scrap with the Milwaukee Brewers for the third and final Wild Card spot.

The Phillies will be on the road for the rest of the season, but aside from a season-closing three-game set in Houston, the schedule is soft. Philadelphia travels to Wrigley Field for three games and then Washington for four.

Philadelphia is a -172 favorite over the Cubs on Tuesday night at FanDuel.

Zack Wheeler will get the assignment opposite another former Met, Marcus Stroman, in the series-opener Tuesday night.

After a month on the injured list, Phillies fans had to have been encouraged with what they saw out of Wheeler in his first start back from the shelf. Wheeler allowed no runs, two hits and tallied three strikeouts in four innings. Only two of the 14 batters that Wheeler faced reached base safely.

» READ MORE: Zack Wheeler’s ‘good rest’ appears to be a shrewd gamble by the Phillies

Although not pitching at the lofty heights he achieved in 2021, Wheeler has been terrific in his third season with the Phillies. The 32-year-old owns a 2.98 ERA in 142 innings and his 3.09 xERA and 3.16 xFIP show that he’s earned every bit of that impressive statline.

The Phillies are expected to ramp up Wheeler’s pitch count to around 70 to 75 pitches Tuesday night as they aim to get him ready to pitch in the postseason.

Wheeler is clearly the A-side in this pitching matchup, but Marcus Stroman has been quietly effective on a poor Cubs team. The Long Island native owns a 3.80 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and .237 batting average against in 125.2 innings of work this season. Stroman’s batted ball profile isn’t near Wheeler’s level, but his ability to induce groundballs and avoid walks makes him a tough pitcher to touch up for big numbers.

Stroman has not been at his best recently, but his long-term form is quite impressive. The former first-round pick has posted a 2.87 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over his last 14 starts.

With Wheeler taking on an offense that grades out as below-average against right-handed pitching (.696 OPS, .307 wOBA and 97 wRC+) and Stroman in good form, this game has the right recipe for a play on the under. However, with Wheeler not expected to go beyond 75 pitches and both bullpens leaving something to be desired, bettors may want to isolate the starters for this tilt and back the F5 Under at 3.5.

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