Phillies making playoff push, but are they overvalued vs. Marlins?

As much as savvy bettors will say to bet numbers and not teams, there are always extenuating factors that handicappers have to consider on a game-by-game basis. One such factor is motivation or what’s at stake for either side in a given matchup. For instance, the Miami Marlins have nothing to play for on Wednesday night, while the Philadelphia Phillies are still in the throes of the Wild Card Race.

The simple thing to assume in a situation like this is that the Phillies should win. They are the better team and have everything to play for, but we know it’s not that simple when it comes to betting. Bookmakers know that it’s natural for punters to lean towards a team with something at stake against one that is “on the beach,” so they’ll often inflate the price on the side that is still in the race.

That seems to be the case on Wednesday night in Miami.

Although Kyle Gibson has a much longer track record compared to Edward Cabrera, it’s the latter who has posted the stronger results this season. Not only does Cabrera own a 2.63 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and .168 batting average against in 54.2 innings, but he also sits in the 90th percentile in average exit velocity, 88th percentile in hard hit rate and 74th percentile in expected slugging percentage. Cabrera does have issues limiting walks, but the rest of his statline checks out, especially for a 24-year-old.

Gibson has been more than serviceable for the Phillies this season, but he’s never been the type of pitcher to post eye-popping numbers. More steady than scintillating, Gibson owns a 4.57 ERA and 1.28 WHIP across 145.1 innings of work on the season. Gibson’s 4.11 xFIP suggests he’s been a tad unfortunate and deserves to see his ERA come down a bit, but there’s nothing that screams positive regression here.

The Phillies have the better lineup and much more to play for on Wednesday night, but this pitching matchup does tilt this matchup towards the Marlins and turns this game into a coin flip. Thus, there’s some value on the Fish at +112 on the moneyline at FanDuel Sportsbook.

However, even though this number has already come down a little bit from the opener, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see it move back towards Philadelphia as first pitch approaches. So if you are betting Miami, you may want to wait and see if you can get a better strike price.

The Bet: Miami Marlins +112

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