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After 1-0 game Thursday night, will weather impact Phillies-Braves again?

Will another fall atmosphere produce a low-scoring game Friday night?

Aaron Nola and the Phillies look to get one step closer to the postseason Friday night vs. Atlanta. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
Aaron Nola and the Phillies look to get one step closer to the postseason Friday night vs. Atlanta. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)Read moreTim Nwachukwu / Getty Images

Thursday night’s 1-0 Philadelphia Phillies win over the Atlanta Braves offered fans at Citizens Bank Park their first taste of fall. Cool temperatures after a midday rain storm combined with gusty winds made it really feel like October baseball in Philadelphia.

The Phillies haven’t been in the playoffs since 2011, so forgive the nostalgia some fans were probably feeling.

The wind blowing from left to right and in at Citizens Bank Park helped make for a low-scoring affair. What kind of person would bet the over with those conditions and those pitchers on the mound? (That would be me.)

Friday night will be sort of a repeat, a cool, windy night and another decent pitching matchup. Here’s how we’re betting Phillies-Braves.

(Odds are courtesy of FanDuel and are subject to change.)

Phillies vs. Braves odds

Moneyline: Phillies (-162) vs. Braves (+136)

Run line: Phillies -1.5 (+134) vs. Braves +1.5 (-162)

Total: Over 7 runs (-120) | Under 7 runs (-102)


Lean under 7, Phillies moneyline parlay (+167)

Probable pitchers and analysis

PHI RHP Aaron Nola (9-12, 3.38 ERA, 0.98 WHIP) vs. ATL RHP Jake Odorizzi (5-5, 4.04 ERA, 1.25 WHIP)

Like Thursday night was a rematch between pitchers that had faced each other six days earlier, the same is happening Friday night in South Philadelphia. Nola and Odorizzi met Saturday in Atlanta, where the Braves, powered by four Ronald Acuña Jr. RBIs, held off the Phillies in a 4-3 win.

Nola allowed all four runs off of seven hits in seven innings of work. He struck out eight hitters and walked two. Odorizzi, meanwhile, allowed one run on two hits in 4 2/3 innings. He struck out five and walked one, but was at 93 pitches before being removed from the game in the fifth inning. It marked the second consecutive outing Odorizzi get through the fifth and eighth overall in 19 starts in 2022.

» READ MORE: Phillies’ Seranthony Domínguez believes a mechanical flaw is to blame for recent struggles

Both of Friday’s pitchers can, at times, struggle to keep the ball on the ground. Nola ranks 28th in Major League Baseball in fly ball outs per inning. Odorizzi, meanwhile, has averaged one home run allowed per game over his last seven outings.

Luckily for both, another cool, windy night is on tap at Citizens Bank Park. Temperatures will be in the low 60s at first pitch, with winds — again coming in and from right to left — at 11 mph with stronger gusts possible.

There were a few deep fly balls to left field Thursday night that likely would have left the ballpark for home runs but instead were outs. Other times, like when J.T. Realmuto scorched one toward the gap in left-center, the wind led to outs instead of hits. Expect some of the same Friday night.

Nola has been pretty decent so far in September, albeit only through three starts, one of which was shortened by a weather delay. Perhaps that’s a little bit out of character for him compared to his recent seasons. But the Phillies turn to their eighth-year starter in a playoff-like spot. Their magic number is 10 with 13 games to go.

History says this is where Nola should start struggling. He entered this fall of 2022 with a career 4.60 ERA in September and October and elevated home-run rates in those months.

What does that all mean for Friday night? It’s a difficult game to try to put a finger on, but if I made any play, it would be on the Phillies to win, and the total to stay under seven runs. That parlay is +167 at FanDuel.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.