Bet on the Rangers to steal series opener against Phillies

There’s been a lot of talk recently questioning the legitimacy of the Phillies’ fast start to the season, as they have played only one series so far versus a team above .500.

Still, it’s pretty hard to dispute the impressiveness of a 34-14 record with a +80 run differential.

A three-game set against the Texas Rangers should provide the Phillies ample opportunity to help suppress the narrative that they are benefitting from a soft opening schedule.

Game 1 on Tuesday features two starting pitchers who are both in the top 10 of baseball’s ERA leaders. Jon Gray (2.08 ERA, 52 IP) will take on red-hot Ranger Suarez (1.37 ERA, 59 IP).

Let’s take a closer look at the matchup and find a betting edge.

Odds via bet365

While Gray does appear to be a starter due for some regression, he should prove to be a well-above-average starter the rest of the way.

He has pitched to a 3.73 xERA and 3.47 xFIP – expected rates that have improved since the early part of the season. He has an ERA of 1.32 over his last four starts.

Suarez’s 1.37 ERA comes with a pretty strong set of underlying numbers. He has pitched to an xFIP 2.72 and an xERA of just 2.31. His K/BB ratio has taken a gigantic leap since 2023, sitting at 5.80 entering this matchup. He owns a Pitching+ rating of 103, which is up from his 2023 mark of 97.

The Rangers’ lineup, which has underperformed this season, could be without the services of Adolis Garcia, who was scratched from Sunday’s game with a right forearm injury.

Texas owns a wRC+ of 100 and ranks in the league’s top half in many key predictive batting categories such as xSLG and xwOBA. Based on past evidence, this is a roster that should hit to better results moving forward.

Wyatt Langford (hamstring) is also sidelined, but his absence does not leave a meaningful hole given his .293 season slug rate.

The Phillies have hit to a wRC+ of 123 over the last 30 days and own the sixth-best offensive wRC+ versus right-handed pitching this season at 123.

» READ MORE: Bet the Celtics to cover as major home favorites vs Pacers in Game 1

The Phillies deserve a lot of credit for what they have done in the early part of this season and should be viewed as true World Series contenders. As they say, you can only beat the teams in front of you, and they have demolished all comers so far.

The same can be said for Ranger Suarez in 2024, as he has really taken his game to an elite level.

And because of their early success, the Phillies are going to be slightly overvalued in the betting markets in the near future, and that looks to be the case in this spot considering the quality of pitching they’ll face in Gray.

Anything better than +145 is worthy of a bet on the Rangers to steal the series opener.

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