Global soccer odds, predictions: Three best non-EPL bets this weekend

Although a majority of eyeballs will be trained on the English Premier League this weekend, there are still ample opportunities for bettors in the remaining domestic competitions.

A few marquee matchups will take center stage in the remaining Big Five domestic competitions, including Atalanta vs. AC Milan in Serie A; Atletico Madrid vs. Villarreal in La Liga; and Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga.

Where should bettors look across the non-EPL competitions this weekend? Here are my three best bets. All odds come courtesy of BetMGM and are reflective at time of writing.

Napoli’s attack got off to a roaring start last week against Verona and I expect that continues this Sunday against inferior opposition.

Last season, Napoli absolutely dominated at home against bottom-half opposition. In 10 such fixtures, they finished the season 8-2-0 (W-L-D) but won all 10 fixtures on expected goals. Further, Napoli’s attack ran rampant in those fixtures, generating 2.21 expected goals per 90 minutes, up significantly from a season-long average of 1.56 xG/90, per fbref.com.

Additionally, in those eight victories, Napoli covered this spread in six and won by at least 1.2 expected goals in seven of the 10 fixtures.

Given how bad Monza’s defense played last week at home against Torino, which finished seven spots behind Napoli in last season’s xGF table, I expect it will continue to struggle when facing a superior opponent away from home.

Back this spread up to -120.

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If there’s one thing we know about Schalke through two matches, it’s that defense is not on the agenda.

Against Koln and Borussia Monchengladbach, Schalke conceded 5.55 total expected goals and seven big scoring chances. More alarmingly, Schalke allowed 4.25 xG and five big scoring chances in their lone road match to date. Although a good chunk of that can be attributed to the fact Schalke played down a man for 55 minutes, they still conceded 1.32 xG to Koln in the period when it was 11v11.

Now they’re to face a Wolfsburg side that cleaned house last season at home against inferior opposition. In six home fixtures against sides below them in the final table, Wolfsburg posted a +1.03 xGDiff per 90 minutes and generated 1.75 expected goals per 90, up from final season-long averages of -0.03 xGDiff/90 and 1.44 xG/90 minutes, per fbref.com.

Plus, although Wolfsburg dropped points in their opening home fixture this season against Werder Bremen, they won the xG battle and the big scoring chances fight. Play them at -130 or better on the three-way moneyline.

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What must Leverkusen do to get on the scoresheet?

Through two fixtures this season, Leverkusen has combined to create nearly four expected goals and has generated eight big scoring chances. Yet, they’ve scored exactly once. Let’s hope some positive regression comes for the Werkself, which has a -2 goal differential through two matches against a +1.8 xGDiff, per fbref.com. Against Hoffenheim, this feels like a good spot to back them.

Over their last four head-to-head meetings, Leverkusen has dominated against Hoffenheim, which conceded the eighth-most road xG in the Bundesliga last season. In those matches, Leverkusen created 2.31 expected goals per 90 minutes, a number that is brought down by a 0.31 xG output in a 0-0 draw. In the three remaining head-to-head meetings, they generated 2.97 xG/90 and won the xG battle in all three.

Given that Hoffenheim’s defense has looked shaky through its first two fixtures — at least 1.5 xGA in both matches to date — I have a hard time believing they’ll keep up with Leverkusen’s potent offense.

It’s a steep price to lay, but I expect Leverkusen grab all three points.

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