Champions League: Club Brugge vs. Atlético Madrid in a pivotal match for Atleti

Atlético Madrid have their backs up against the wall on Wednesday. Sitting at the foot of Group B as we enter Matchweek 4, Atleti need all three points from their match against Club Brugge to have a hope of advancing to the Round of 16. Brugge, meanwhile, are surprisingly atop of Group B with an unblemished 3-0-0 record after defeating Atleti in the reverse fixture last week.

Bookmakers expect Atlético Madrid to come out on top in this matchup, but will it be as straightforward as the odds suggest?

Atlético Madrid -1.5 (+120, Caesars)

Atlético are known for their ability to outperform their predictive metrics with their tenacious defense and clinical finishing, but that hasn’t been the story during this Champions League campaign. Atleti are coming off a 2-0 loss to Brugge, but it was the Spanish giants that won the expected goals battle, 1.88 to 1.64, and outshot Brugge, 19-7. Atletico also had 22 more touches in the penalty area compared to Brugge and they had 12 more box entries.

Most of the time, Atleti wins that match.

But that’s been the story with Brugge’s magical run this season. While Cinderella teams always need some luck to go their way, the Belgian side is squeezing every bit of luck out every match they’ve played in Europe. Brugge have scored on six of their 11 shots from inside the penalty area (not including a penalty shot) through their first three games and have created just 4.8 expected goals through three games.

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Some teams, like Bayern Munich or Real Madrid, can finish chances at that kind of pace, but Brugge is not even close to those clubs. Club Brugge’s finishing is unsustainable and negative regression should be expected from this team.

Diego Simeone’s Atlético Madrid are known for their ability to rise to the occasion and they’ll need to do just that on Wednesday or else they’ll find themselves bounced out of the Champions League before the knockout stages. That is unacceptable for Atleti.

Atletico are once again among the best defensive sides in Europe, so they should be able to quell this smoke-and-mirrors Brugge attack and have their way with the Belgians on Wednesday. Atleti aren’t typically the side you want to bet to win in a rout, but in this environment you’d expect the Mattress Makers to be able to cover the -1.5 spread more often than not.

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