Croatia is a live underdog once again in Tuesday’s World Cup semifinal

The 2022 World Cup semifinals get underway on Tuesday with a showdown between dark horse Croatia, looking to make its second consecutive trip to the final, and Lionel Messi’s Argentina, which hasn’t won a World Cup since 1986.

Argentina entered the tournament as the second-favorite so its no surprise to see La Albiceleste in the final four, but Croatia checked into Qatar as a +5000 outsider and had very little backing from bettors or pundits, so it is a bit of a shock to see the Checkered Ones within a win of another final.

Argentina is a -300 favorite to advance on Tuesday and will likely be heavily backed by a betting public that will want to see Lionel Messi get the opportunity to win his first World Cup.

After losing to Saudi Arabia on Matchday 1, there were plenty of skeptics out there questioning Argentina’s status as one of the tournament favorites. It was fair criticism, although it seemed a bit reactionary since Argentina would be heavy favorites to beat Mexico and Poland in their next two matches.

Argentina would take care of business to top Group C and then defeat Australia in the Round of 16 to quiet some of the noise, but they never really looked all that convincing in doing so.

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The South Americans looked like they could be in some trouble ahead of a quarterfinal with the Netherlands, who were backed as a live underdog against Messi and co. last week. Argentina would defeat the Netherlands in a dramatic match that saw a record 18 yellow cards handed out, but the result was, once again, far from convincing. Argentina went ahead, 2-0, thanks to a moment of brilliance from Messi and a converted penalty, but the Dutch stormed back in the last 20 minutes to send the game to extra-time.

It was a worrying sign that Argentina couldn’t hold onto the lead, especially since they almost blew a two-goal lead to Australia in their previous match. It’s hard to trust Argentina’s defense right now.

Croatia’s defense looked vulnerable throughout the tournament as well and it looked like Brazil would tear them to shreds, but the Checkered Ones were able to survive thanks to some terrific goalkeeping, heroic defending and some luck. Brazil created 2.5 expected goals against Croatia, but were held to just one goal that came in extra-time.

According to the stats, Croatia were lucky to survive and advance, but this team has perfected that art over the last two World Cups. Doubt them at your own risk.

And while Croatia did struggle to prevent Brazil from creating scoring chances, Argentina’s attack has fewer dimensions to it than their South American rivals. It’s an oversimplification to say if you stop Messi, than you stop Argentina, but if you do contain the generational star, you do stand a good chance of shutting Argentina down.

Croatia’s midfield gives them a legitimate chance of being able to do that and they’re a live underdog again on Tuesday.

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