Liverpool vs. Brentford prediction: Bees a live underdog at Anfield

Ahead of Saturday’s English Premier League clash at Anfield, we’re set to share a Liverpool vs. Brentford prediction and best bet.

Liverpool enters Saturday’s match winners of five games on the bounce, including a midweek 1-0 win over Fulham. That leaves the Reds on 59 points through 34 points, good for fifth in the league.

As for Brentford, they’ve won two games in a row and are unbeaten in three. In the reverse fixture, the Bees captured a 3-1 win over Liverpool.

Hosts Liverpool are a -215 favorite in this match, though, with a draw priced at +350 and Brentford priced at +525. The total is set at 3.5 goals, juiced -155 to the under.

Ah, the perfect sell-high spot on Liverpool against one of the best counter-pressing teams in the Premier League.

There is stark contrast with manager Thomas Frank’s Brentford when they have to play with the ball compared to when they can sit back and absorb pressure. In games this season where Brentford held 50% or more possession, they’re 2-7-4 (W-D-L) straight up.

But, in games where they held 49% or less of the ball, they’re an impressive 10-7-4 (W-D-L), including the win against Liverpool where they held only 28% possession. Among the four losses, they’ve lost by multiple goals only twice but have stayed within the number on expected goals all four times, per fbref.com.

» READ MORE: Newcastle United vs. Arsenal prediction: How we’re betting Sunday’s Premier League clash

This is also a Brentford side that loves playing close games against the league’s best.

In five trips to Manchester City, Arsenal, Newcastle United, Manchester United and Chelsea, Brentford is 2-1-2 (W-D-L) with only a -0.18 expected goal differential per 90 minutes.

Now they get to go against a Liverpool side with tired legs due to fixture congestion. It’s also quite concerning Liverpool’s offense struggled to break down a terrible Fulham defense in the midweek.

Manager Jurgen Klopp’s side generated only one non-penalty expected goal against the Cottagers, a side 0.27 non-penalty xG per 90 worse than Brentford on the defensive end.

This is also a Liverpool side with only a +1.11 home expected goal differential per 90 minutes, so the fact they’re a 1.5-goal favorite here is head-scratching. In 17 home games, they’ve managed only four multi-goal wins, all against teams with a worse road expected goal differential per 90 than Brentford.

For those reasons, take the visitors to keep this game close and sprinkle the moneyline to potentially see a larger return on investment.

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