Champions League prediction: Man City is a big favorite, but we’ve got some ‘pizza money’ on an Inter Milan prop

It seems inevitable that Manchester City will become the first English team to win the classic treble (Premier League, FA Cup and Champions League) since Manchester United in 1999. The Cityzens, who have lost just twice in their last 30 matches across all competitions, are massive -450 favorites to lift the trophy on Saturday.

Do the odds underrate Inter Milan’s chances in Istanbul?

To lift the Cup: Man City -450; Inter Milan +350

90-minute result: Man City -220; Inter Milan +550; Draw +360

Total: 2.5 goals (over -138; under +114)

It is not surprising to see such a big price attached to City on Saturday. The Sky Blues tore through the Premier League down the stretch to run away with the title, all the while taking care of RB Leipzig, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid in the knockout stages of the Champions League.

Considering the schedule — City played three contests with Arsenal and then two against Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Manchester United — the fact that the Cityzens have just two losses (one of which was a meaningless match with Brentford on the final day of the Premier League season) and have not allowed more than one goal in a single match in their last 30 games is one of the most impressive runs of form we’ve seen in a generation.

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You can’t ignore form like that when you’re handicapping a standalone match like a Champions League Final, but you can try to poke holes in it with some extenuating circumstances.

In this case, the outside forces at work will be the immense pressure on Manchester City.

When Pep Guardiola took over City back in 2016-17, the goal was simple: Win the Champions League at all costs. And even though five Premier League titles in seven seasons is an incredible feat, there is an empty space on the mantle at the Etihad and if it doesn’t get filled, Guardiola’s reign will always have an asterisk.

So while the weight of the world is on City in this match, Inter are playing with house money.

A cagey, careful start from City would not be shocking, especially since Inter are a stout defensive team. No team in Serie A did a better job at preventing big scoring chances than the Nerazzurri this season.

And this is a more than capable offensive team, too. Inter were the best offensive team in Serie A this season, and while it’s one thing to dominate clubs like Spezia or Monza compared to Manchester City, the Nerazzurri will give the Sky Blues plenty to think about defensively.

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The good news for City is that they are the best defensive team in Europe. They’re also the best attacking team, but it’s the defense that puts City into a different stratosphere. You can’t stop them, but you can’t score on them, either.

There are two ways I want to attack this match from a betting standpoint. One is playing into the angle that Inter is a capable defensive side that will set up in a very conservative posture and try to turn this contest into a rock fight. And with the possibility that City comes out a bit nervy and not firing on all cylinders, the Under 2.5 goals looks like good value at +106 (FanDuel).

The other angle worth exploring is going completely against the grain and taking a longshot bet on something nobody sees coming. There aren’t many people who will want to lay the wood on City to win the trophy, but plenty of those folks will look for derivatives at more palatable prices, like Manchester City to cover a spread or to win to nil. But derivatives of an Inter upset will go largely unplayed, which will keep the price high.

Bookmakers always underrate the extremes, which is why tossing some pizza money on a correct score bet with Inter winning in a shutout feels worthwhile. I landed on Inter winning 2-0 at +3900 (FanDuel).

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