Champions League picks: PSG vs. Benfica

Paris Saint-Germain are off and running this season.

Not only are Les Parisians sitting atop Ligue 1 with an 8-1-0 (W-D-L) record and a +23 goal differential, but PSG is also a perfect 2-0-0 in the Champions League thus far and are currently second-favorites (behind Manchester City) to win the entire tournament at +500.

With plenty of wind in their sails, PSG ride into Lisbon as a -140 road favorite over Benfica on Wednesday.

Is now the time to sell high on Lionel Messi and PSG?

PSG are the clear headliner in this matchup and have shown they’re deserving of their status as one the tournament favorites, but Benfica should not be overlooked in this tilt. The Eagles sit atop the Portuguese first division with a 7-1-0 record and a +16 goal differential with 19 goals scored and just three conceded in eight matches. Say what you want about the quality of competition in Portugal, but allowing just three goals in eight matches is a notable achievement in any top division.

And if we’re being honest, the difference between Ligue 1 and the Primeira Liga is not that significant.

Like PSG, Benfica are also off to a flawless start in the Champions League and have allowed just one goal in their first two matches against Juventus and Maccabi Haifa. So that’s four goals conceded for the Eagles in 10 games.

That kind of defensive form is going to be necessary against a team that paces all of Europe’s big five leagues in expected goals per 90 minutes and is second in goals per 90.

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Oftentimes, teams with great defensive structure will naturally come at the expense of some offensive creativity and expansiveness, but Benfica have seemingly been able to manage thus far this season. No team creates more xG per 90 minutes in the Premeira Liga than Benfica and only two squads have found the back of the net more than the Eagles thus far this season. Benfica scored two goals in each of their first two Champions League matches, including on the road at Juventus.

PSG represents a massive step up in class for Benfica from what they’ve seen this season, but the Eagles have given us no reason to doubt their ability to punch up as an underdog. The bookmakers are giving the Portuguese side roughly a 22.7% chance of winning this match and that seems a bit short considering their form.

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