Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace prediction: Host Spurs undervalued in EPL London derby

It’s a London derby at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium as we’re set to outline our Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace prediction and best bet.

Motivation varies for this match as Crystal Palace are all but safe from relegation while Tottenham are chasing a spot in one of the European competitions.

That said, the teams enter this game in opposite form. Spurs have dropped points in four consecutive fixtures while Palace are 4-1-1 (W-D-L) in their past six matches.

Tottenham enter Saturday’s fixture as a -125 favorite with Crystal Palace priced at +320 and the draw sitting at +290. The total is set at 2.5 goals, juiced -134 to the over.

This is perhaps the ultimate buy-low, sell-high spot of the entire season.

Although Tottenham have dropped points in four straight matches, the level of competition has proved utterly brutal. Home to Bournemouth, at Newcastle United, home to Manchester United and at Liverpool are those games with Tottenham drastically underperforming their underlying metrics.

A home loss to Bournemouth doesn’t look good, but Spurs own a -1.5 expected goal differential over that span compared to a -7 actual goal differential, per fbref.com.

Take out the Liverpool penalty in the last match and it becomes a -6 non-penalty goal differential vs. a -0.9 non-penalty expected goal differential.

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Meanwhile, Crystal Palace have cruised down easy street in their past six matches. Over that span, they’ve faced Leicester City, Leeds United, Southampton, Everton, Wolves and West Ham, teams that comprise six of the bottom seven spots in the Premier League.

Consider their hardest road match of that span — at Wolves, who are 14th in the EPL with a -0.25 home expected goal differential per 90 minutes — and bettors will find they lost the match 2-0 with losing on expected goals 1.4 to 0.8.

Now, they have to go and face a Tottenham side with the seventh-best home expected goal differential in the league at +0.57. Without adjusting for strength of schedule, Palace should lose the expected goals battle by 1.37 expected goals against Tottenham if they deliver the same performance against Wolves.

Plus, even just adding up the home/road splits for these teams gets Tottenham as a +0.88 goal favorite in terms of expected goals, again per fbref.com. This is also a Tottenham side whose only home non-wins have come against Bournemouth and Newcastle United (undeservedly) along with Aston Villa, Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United.

Those teams are miles ahead of Palace in terms of overall quality, so I would expect some positive regression for Tottenham in a get-right spot.

Take the hosts at anything better than -150 and don’t be afraid to lay a goal if that market is available to you.

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