Bet on plenty of points from South Dakota State and Iowa State’s meeting in first-round of East Region

Eric Henderson spent three years as an assistant under T.J. Otzelberger at South Dakota State.

When Otzelberger took the head coaching job at UNLV, it took only a few hours before South Dakota State Director of Athletics Justin Sell announced Henderson would take over.

Otzelberger stayed at UNLV for two seasons before taking the Iowa State job as head coach.

The relationship between the two head coaches began at Iowa State more than twenty years ago. Otzelberger was an assistant under Greg McDermott, while Henderson served as a graduate assistant.

On Thursday night, it’ll all come full circle when Henderson’s South Dakota State Jack Rabbits take on Otzelberger’s Iowa State Cyclones in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament in Omaha, Nebraska.

Given the familiarity between the two head coaches, I’m anticipating a very competitive game with bragging rights on the line.

Although the Jack Rabbits don’t play particularly fast, they tend to make the most of their possessions by being very efficient in their offensive sets. Per TeamRankings, South Dakota State ranks 27th in offensive efficiency with 111.5 points per 100 possessions.

When you look at their Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%), which accounts for 3-point field goals being worth more than 2-pointers, the Jack Rabbits rank 17th at 55.4%.

What’s interesting is that South Dakota State doesn’t necessarily shoot a lot from the perimeter. It’s 120th in 3-point attempts with 21.9 per game.

However, the shots the Jack Rabbits are able to put up tend to find the bottom of the net. They shoot 36.5% from beyond the arc, putting them 36th in the country.

When they get out in transition, they’ll pass up shots at the rim in favor of 3-pointers.

Per Hoop-Math.com, South Dakota State ranks fourth overall in Transition eFG% (63.7%). And while Iowa State is widely lauded for its stout defense, it ranks 250th defensively with a Transition eFG% of 55.7%.

» READ MORE: Bet on high-scoring game between Michigan State and Mississippi State in NCAA Tournament first-round

The Cyclones will know they can get after this Jack Rabbits on the perimeter. After all, South Dakota State ranks 353rd in opponent 3-point field goals with 9.4 allowed per game.

Thus, despite averaging eight 3-pointers, the Jack Rabbits give up more shots from beyond the arc than they make.

Iowa State can certainly shoot from the perimeter, ranking 128th in 3-point percentage (34.9%).

However, Iowa State currently ranks 303rd in 3-point attempts with 18.6 per game.

Therefore, it’ll be interesting to see if Iowa State adopts a more aggressive 3-point strategy, given South Dakota State’s apparent weakness in guarding the perimeter.

Much of the discussion leading into this game has been about how impressive the Cyclones looked defensively against Houston in the Big 12 Tournament Final.

While the Cyclones deserve a lot of credit, it’s worth noting that Houston’s shooting was simply abysmal in the game.

The Cougars shot just 26.8% (15-of-56) from the floor and 18.2% (4-for-22) from 3-point range.

I quickly looked at Big 12 schools that shoot from the perimeter with the same proficiency or better than South Dakota State and found two teams that qualified: Texas Tech (36.5%) and Baylor (39.4%).

In the three meetings against those schools during this campaign, the over was 2-1, and each game would’ve gone over this current total of 135, which is available at BetRivers.

Lastly, our Action Labs database shows that the over is a perfect 4-0 this season in South Dakota State games, with an opening total ranging between 133.5 and 140.5 points.

My model projects a total closer to 138 points, giving me enough of an edge to recommend the over as my best bet in this matchup.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.