Steelers vs. Eagles props, predictions: Our four best prop bets for Keystone State battle

NFL oddsmakers have a crystal-clear opinion on Sunday’s showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles: With the Eagles laying double digits and the total below 44 points, they expect a comfortable-but-low-scoring Philadelphia victory.

In other words, not a whole lot of action — particularly from the skill players wearing black and gold.

Of course, when these instate rivals last met in October 2020, those same oddsmakers projected a similar script, posting an Over/Under of 44. Result: nine combined touchdowns, 67 points and a whole lot of happy Over prop bettors (and angry Under prop bettors).

This time around? We expect a contest that at least comes close to hitting the oddsmakers’ projections. And our four pack of Steelers vs. Eagles props mostly falls in line with that sentiment.

Note: Odds updated as of 11:15 a.m. ET on Oct. 28.

Since erupting for 38 points in a season-opening shootout in Detroit, the Eagles’ offense has been quite consistent, scoring in the 20s in six consecutive contests.

However, Philadelphia has only topped 26 points once since the Lions game. That was a 29-21 home victory over Jacksonville, whose quarterback (Trevor Lawrence) committed five turnovers.

Obviously, the Eagles could receive similar gifts from Steelers rookie QB Kenny Pickett. Not only has Pickett thrown seven interceptions in less than 3½ games, but Philadelphia’s defense is tied for the league lead with 14 forced turnovers (nine interceptions, five fumble recoveries).

However, those stats are why Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin would be foolish not to deploy a conservative offensive game plan. It’s his only chance to be competitive.

As for the Steelers’ defense, it’s shaky (to say the least). That said, they’ve held four of seven opponents to 20 points or fewer. They also have given up more than 27 points just twice. And one of those instances was a fluke: Trailing 23-17 in Cleveland with seconds to play, Pittsburgh started lateraling the football in hopes of a miracle comeback. Eventually, the pigskin hit the turf, and the Browns scooped it up and walked into the end zone as time expired.

If the Steelers (especially Pickett) can be somewhat responsible with the football Sunday, we don’t see the Eagles getting enough opportunities to put up 28 points.

If we are correct that Pittsburgh will take a cautious offensive approach in this game, then Harris figures to have the ball in his hands a lot.

The Steelers’ bruising second-year running back is coming off a strong effort Sunday night in Miami (17 carries, 65 yards). It was the fourth time in the last six contests that Harris eclipsed 45 rushing yards (and he almost did it in another, finishing with 42 yards two weeks ago against Tampa Bay).

If Philadelphia’s defense has a weakness, it’s stopping the run. Two weeks ago, the Cowboys rushed for 134 yards. The week prior, Arizona churned out 124 yards on the ground.

Might the Eagles load the box and dare Pickett to beat them? For sure. Still, this is a pretty low bar for Harris to clear — heck, it’s 4 yards less than the rushing prop for Philly QB Jalen Hurts. Take the Over at Caesars Sportsbook.

Crazy prop bet to make, right? After all, how difficult is it to score two touchdowns in today’s NFL? Answer: quite difficult, at least for the 2022-23 Steelers.

Here are the touchdowns Pittsburgh’s offense has produced in each game: 1 (at Cincinnati), 1 (vs. New England), 2 (at Cleveland), 2 (vs. Jets), 0 (at Buffalo), 2 (vs. Tampa Bay), 1 (at Miami).

In fairness, the Steelers’ first score of the season was on an interception return (which, if applied to this prop, certainly would count). Still, it’s not like this team regularly short-circuits the scoreboard — and probably won’t against a Philly defense allowing just 17.5 points per game.

That figure is actually misleading, too. Because in five games since the Lions put up 35 in Week 1, the Eagles’ D has yielded just nine touchdowns and an average of 14 points per contest.

Hurts beat this prop number in each of his first three games, connecting on long passes of 54, 53 and 45 yards against the Lions, Vikings and Commanders, respectively. Since then? The MVP candidate hasn’t completed a pass longer than 31 yards.

So why is this prop 5.5 yards higher than the longest connection Hurts has had in more than a month? Probably because the Steelers’ secondary is statistically atrocious. Pittsburgh is surrendering 275.4 yards per game through the air. Only the Chiefs, Titans and Falcons are worse.

Now here comes the “however” … However, Pittsburgh’s D has only allowed four completions longer than 35 yards. And three of those — including a 98-yard bomb — came off the arm of Bills gunslinger/MVP frontrunner Josh Allen in Week 5. The other was a 44-yard TD strike by New England’s Mac Jones in Week 2.

Among the quarterbacks who didn’t have a completion longer than 35 yards against Pittsburgh: Tom Brady (long of 28), Joe Burrow (24) and Tua Tagovailoa (32).

This tells us the Steelers — especially without ferocious-but-injured pass rusher T.J. Watt on the field — play a bend-but-don’t-break style defense. Yes, that defense broke a few times against Allen, who probably has the strongest arm in the league. It shouldn’t break against Hurts, who does as much damage with his legs as his arm.

Bet the Under on this one at Caesars Sportsbook.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.