French Open prediction: Can Stefanos Tsitsipas overcome his struggles against Carlos Alcaraz?

There’s no question that Tuesday’s tilt between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Carlos Alcaraz is the biggest match of the 2023 French Open so far.

Alcaraz, the World No. 1, has looked every bit the tournament favorite through his first four matches. The 20-year-old Spaniard has dropped just one set — back in Round 2 to Japanese scrapper Taro Daniel — and is coming off a clinical whitewash of World No. 18 and trendy dark horse pick Lorenzo Musetti.

It was a statement performance from Alcaraz, but things will only get tougher from this point on for the No. 1 player on the planet.

Like Alcaraz, Tsitsipas has left little doubt that he deserves to be in the quarterfinals at Roland Garros. The 24-year-old dropped one set in his Round 1 tussle against the always game Jiri Vesely, but that’s the only blemish on his scoreline through the first four rounds.

If you have intentions of winning a Grand Slam, it’s vital to try and limit your time on court in the early rounds and Tsitsipas has done that. He was barely pushed by any of his last three opponents and should have plenty in the tank for his headliner against Alcaraz.

Tsitsipas has had a decent clay season, is in good form and has plenty of success at this tournament as a former finalist and two-time semifinalist, and yet he’s a sizable +350 underdog on Tuesday.

The first thing people will point you to in order to explain the gap in the odds for this match between two top-five players is Tsitsipas’ poor record against Alcaraz to date.

The two first met in the Round of 32 in the 2021 US Open and it was Alcaraz who came out on top in an epic five-set battle. It’s been one-way traffic since then. Alcaraz is 4-0 against Tsitsipas and has dropped just one set. Their last meeting came a few weeks ago in the final at Barcelona, where Alcaraz cruised to a 6-3, 6-4 win.

The head-to-head matchup is certainly worth noting, but it’s not a huge sample size and it’s unfair to just toss a player of Tsitsipas’ caliber because he’s 0-4 against the World No. 1. In fact, Tsitsipas’ poor record against Alcaraz could benefit value-hunters who think that the history between these two players is going to influence the market too much.

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That’s where I land, as it does seem like the betting market is underestimating Tsitsipas a little bit here. The 24-year-old has not won a Grand Slam yet, but he’s been to six semifinals and two finals, which tells you he can raise his game to the level needed to compete with players like Alcaraz.

Everyone expects that Alcaraz to be the heir-apparent to Rafa Nadal’s spot on the throne at Roland Garros, but its yet to happen and it’s fair to suggest that the betting market is overrating the youngster based on this narrative.

Tsitsipas has the offensive weapons to give Alcaraz plenty to think about and outside influences are driving Tsitsipas’ odds into range for a play on Tuesday.

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