UEFA Champions League odds, predictions: Two best bets for Wednesday’s Slate

Tuesday’s UEFA Champions League action has concluded and bettors can now turn their attention’s to Wednesday’s slate.

Headlining Wednesday’s card is Inter Milan vs. Bayern Munich, a clash between two former winners of the competition. Other high-profile fixtures include Liverpool paying a visit to Napoli and Tottenham Hotspur hosting Olympique de Marseille.

Where should bettors look across Wednesday’s card? Here are my best bets for the entire slate. All odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.

Inter’s last match against AC Milan saw fireworks, and I expect there will be a similar gamescript against Bayern Munich.

For all of Inter’s offensive strength, this is still a side that has allowed 1.4 big scoring chances per match in Serie A this season. Against AC Milan and Lazio — the closest comparable sides to Bayern Munich — the Nerazzurri allowed a combined three big scoring chances and nearly 2.5 expected goals.

But, seeing as I rate the Bayern attack ahead of both those sides, I expect manager Julian Nagelsmann’s side will have success against an Inter defense that has kept just one clean sheet this season and held only three teams under two goals. Plus, Bayern has generated north of four big scoring chances in a league that’s virtually as difficult as Serie A in terms of UEFA coefficients.

At the same time, I rate this as a good sell-high spot on the Bayern Munich defense. In five Bundesliga fixtures, it has managed only two clean sheets — vs. Bochum and Wolfsburg — and has yet to face an offense on Inter’s level. Plus, this remains an Inter side that generated 1.95 xG/90 minutes in four home UCL fixtures last season, including a 2.0 xG output against Real Madrid on the opening matchday.

With this group of death emphasizing the importance of home fixtures, expect Inter to contribute a decent amount to the total as well. Back this market at +115 or better.

» READ MORE: English Premier League: Regression candidates ahead of matchday seven

Without Thiago Alcantara in the midfield, this Liverpool defense has surrendered chances left and right.

Through six fixtures in the English Premier League, the Reds have conceded a sizable 11 big scoring chances despite conceding only six goals. That former stat renders Liverpool tied for seventh in terms of big scoring chances against. Additionally, Liverpool sits seventh overall in the English top-flight in terms of big scoring chances differential.

Now, manager Jurgen Klopp’s side has to face a Napoli attack that leads Serie A in big scoring chances (19) and expected goals (10.5). Additionally, Liverpool has struggled historically in visits to Napoli. In the last two head-to-head meetings in Naples (September 2019 and October 2018), the hosts have a +3 goal differential against a +2.9 expected goal differential and are 2-0-0 (W-L-D) in those meetings.

Perhaps most importantly, this is also a Napoli defense that has held up early in the season. After losing Kalidou Koulibaly in the summer transfer window, manager Luciano Spaletti’s side has conceded only three big scoring chances in five matches. Against Lazio and Fiorentina — its toughest opposition to date — Napoli has allowed zero big scoring chances.

For those reasons, I believe Liverpool is overvalued in this spot and am happy to take the half-goal with a stout home underdog.

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