Why Wolverhampton is worth a small bet as a big underdog Monday vs. Manchester United

According to the oddsmakers, Monday’s match between Manchester United and Wolverhampton Wanderers should be pretty straightforward. United is a -350 favorite on the three-way moneyline against Wolves, meaning the market gives the Red Devils roughly a 78% chance of taking all three points under the lights at Old Trafford.

And while there is a pretty wide gap between these two teams on paper — Manchester United is the fourth choice to win the league, while Wolves are among the favorites to be relegated — there are some off-field factors that are impacting the betting for the first edition of Monday Night Football of the 2023-24 Premier League season.

It’s been over a decade since Manchester United won the Premier League, but for the first time in that span it feels like there’s clarity and stability at Old Trafford. Erik ten Hag guided United to a third-place finish in ‘22-23 and won the EFL Cup in his first season in charge, but now the Dutchman and his charges need to take another step forward. Those are the expectations when you’re Manchester United.

Wolverhampton’s predicament is quite different. After wallowing through the first half of last season, Wolves brought in former Real Madrid and Spain manager Julen Lopetegui to hoist the club out of trouble and point it in the right direction. Lopetegui did just that and by season’s end Wolves were safe and sound in 13th place.

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But instead of backing Lopetegui and investing in the team, Wolverhampton allowed a number of key players to leave and the club never seemed too fussed about replacing them. The club’s peculiar transfer business frustrated Lopetegui so much that he decided to quit just days before the season started.

Having a manager abandon his post in those circumstances is not a good thing in the big picture, but I actually think it could provide a boost for Wolves in the short-term.

Lopetegui wanted his team to play a more romantic, ball-on-the-carpet style of soccer, but Wolves simply just don’t have the talent needed to outplay opponents in the Premier League. His replacement, Gary O’Neil, won’t have Wolverhampton playing the most entertaining brand of soccer, but his pragmatic approach and ability to get his team organized should raise the floor at Wolves.

There are still a lot of concerning questions to ask about Wolverhampton in the big picture, but the team’s profile will change under O’Neil and all of a sudden they become a lot more interesting as an underdog. With Lopetegui in charge, Wolverhampton would have a lot of stylistic issues against Manchester United, but those become muted if Wolves opt to sit deep and force the Red Devils to break them down.

Manchester United is very likely to win this match, but the managerial change at Wolverhampton makes them an intriguing punt as a big underdog. A small bet on Wolves to pull the stunner seems worth it on Monday.

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