How we’re betting United States vs. Vietnam in World Cup match Friday

The United States Women’s National Team will begin their 2023 World Cup journey against Vietnam on Friday evening (9 p.m. ET) at Eden Park in Auckland, New Zealand. Gigantic favorites are not all that uncommon in international soccer -- especially in the women’s game -- but it’s still head-turning when you see odds like the ones we’re dealing with for this match between the Stars & Stripes and the Golden Star Women Warriors.

The USWNT is a -20000 favorite to win the match, which does complicate the handicap a bit.

Nonetheless, let’s break down Friday’s match and see if we can’t land on a bet with some value.

This is the first time the Women’s World Cup will feature a field of 32 teams (24 participated in 2019) and while an expanded tournament should do wonders in helping to grow the game in the future, it also means we’ll be dealing with a handful of matches like this one, where one team has virtually no shot at winning.

It is a great thing for the sport that countries like Vietnam are in the World Cup, but it also doesn’t mean we can’t admit that this will likely be an ugly game. Not only are the Stars & Stripes a -20000 favorite on the three-way moneyline, but the spread for their curtain-raiser is 6 goals.

The derivative markets are also outlandishly priced. Alex Morgan is a ridiculous -800 to score a goal and there are three other players (Sophia Smith, Lynn Williams and Megan Rapinoe) at -400 or higher in the anytime goalscorer market.

» READ MORE: U.S. women’s soccer team is dominating BetMGM markets, has most tickets to win 2023 World Cup

This all tells us what we already knew -- the goals should come fast and furious for the USWNT.

Even though the odds for this match make it seem unappealing to bet, the fact that it features the United States and is going to be played in primetime should drive a decent amount of action. And you can expect that most of the money will come in on Team USA to cover the six-goal spread and go over their team total.

That kind of lopsided action will inevitably inflate the price on the United States across all markets, but I think there’s still value to be found on a prop that correlates to a blowout.

It can take some teams a game or two to find their rhythm in a World Cup, but this is the ideal matchup for the USWNT to come out of the gates firing. I’d expect the USWNT to put an emphasis on building a big lead so that they can ease off the pedal a bit in preparation for a huge match against the Netherlands on Wednesday night.

Thus, I like taking a shot on Over 4.5 goals (+340) to be scored in the first half.

The Bet: 1H Over 4.5 goals (+340, DraftKings)

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