Yankees vs. Astros Game 2 Odds, Prediction: Fade New York once again

Game 1 of the American League Championship Series went pretty much as we expected: Justin Verlander regained the dominant form he displayed for most of the regular season (one run, three hits in six innings); the tired Yankees lineup did a lot of swinging and missing (17 strikeouts) and little scoring (one run); and Houston’s hitters got timely knocks on the way to 4-2 victory.

With that, the Astros are now 7-2 against New York this season (4-0 at home). They’re also the only team that qualified for the postseason that still hasn’t tasted defeat, winning all four games (every other playoff team has at least two losses).

Should bettors expect more of the same when the best-of-7 series resumes Thursday night at Minute Maid Park in Houston? Short answer: Yep.

Here’s how we’re betting Game 2 of the ALCS, with first pitch scheduled for 7:37 p.m. ET on TBS.

Note: Odds are updated as of 12:15 p.m. ET on Oct. 20

Let’s start with some good news for the Bronx Bombers, who appear to be on their way to a third ALCS loss to the Astros in the last five years: One of their two victories against Houston this season came in a game started by Framber Valdez, the same pitcher they will face tonight.

Then again, it’s not like New York torched Valdez back in late June in the Bronx. The southpaw made one mistake that Yankees designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton hit for a three-run homer — the only runs (and one of just two hits) that Valdez surrendered in six innings.

When he departed that game after the sixth, Valdez had a 6-3 lead. That lead evaporated when New York improbably scored four runs in the bottom of the ninth off Astros closer Ryan Pressly for a 7-6 walk-off victory.

Here’s what we mean by improbably: In 32 appearances since his meltdown in the Bronx, Pressly has allowed a total of seven runs in 33 1/3 innings (1.89 ERA). Three of those appearances have come against the Yankees, including in Game 1 on Wednesday night. Pressly’s numbers in those three outings: 3 1/3 innings pitched, zero runs, zero hits, zero walks, seven strikeouts.

Back to Valdez. His strong outing at Yankee Stadium mirrored his entire season, as he’s 17-6 with a 2.83 ERA in 32 starts. Admittedly, Valdez wasn’t at his best at home this season (7-4, 3.52 ERA). And he was a bit erratic last week in Game 2 of the AL Division Series against Seattle (two runs, four hits, three walks in 5 2/3 innings).

But the bottom line is when Valdez pitches, the Astros usually win. They’re 22-10 behind the 28-year-old Dominican, including 10-2 since Aug. 5.

As we noted in Wednesday’s Game 1 preview, Houston is simply a bad matchup for these Yankees. For one thing, the Astros’ offense — which is like an annoying fly buzzing around a family picnic — constantly puts the ball in play (among all 30 MLB teams, they ranked second to Cleveland in fewest strikeouts per nine innings).

And while the Yankees led the world in home runs this season (thanks in large part to Aaron Judge’s historic 62), Houston pitchers ranked second behind the Giants in home runs allowed (and they’ve surrendered just four dingers in 45 innings this postseason).

Want another example that underscores why Houston’s style meshes well against the Yankees? Try this: Judge has two home runs and seven RBI against the Astros. But those bombs are among just four hits in 31 at-bats against Houston pitching. That’s a .129 batting average. Judge’s average for the season: .311.

Will the Astros sweep this series? We’re not ready to go that far (although it wouldn’t be shocking). But they’re 5-0 in their last five home games overall (3-0 in the playoffs), 4-0 against the Yankees at home this season and 7-1 against the Yankees at home in ALCS contests since 2017.

Who’s betting against those trends Thursday night? Certainly not us. Lay the reasonable -145 price at Caesars Sportsbook in Game 2 of the ALCS.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.