No Andrew Painter, Kyle Schwarber booming, and a clutch-hitting deficit: What the Phillies showed us lately

Maybe it was the typical polite, genteel nature of the Philadelphia sports reporting population, but the fact that the Phillies slammed the door on any promotion this year of top prospect Andrew Painter went largely untrumpeted. This, in a market that makes headlines out of A.J. Brown’s sideline literary habits.

This past weekend the Phillies decided that unemployed, two-year disaster Walker Buehler was a better stretch-run option than Painter, whose uneven season at triple A torpedoed plans to promote him. Painter underwent elbow surgery in 2023 and missed the 2024 minor-league season, but was dominant in the Arizona Fall League in 2024. As such, the Phillies hoped that a dozen or so triple-A starts would prepare Painter for a mid-July promotion, at the earliest, if not sometime in August, at the latest.

But Painter is 4-7 with a 5.21 ERA in 23 minor league starts, has pitched at least six innings just three times this season, and he’s taking on water: 1-2 with a 7.77 ERA in five August starts, a month in which batters are hitting .307 against him.

When asked if Painter definitely would not pitch in the majors this season, Phillies president Dave Dombrowski on Sunday told reporters, “I’m not going to set anything in stone.” Nice hedge, Dave, but it seems likely to me that the career-high, 1,756th pitch that Painter threw Thursday in Papillion, Neb., against the Omaha Storm Chasers will be the last of a decidedly stormy 2025.

» READ MORE: Phillies agree to minor-league deal with pitcher Walker Buehler, who could fit into their postseason plans

He’s healthy, but he’s erratic. There’s nothing more to learn.

Meanwhile, the Phillies will adopt a six-man rotation when Buehler starts Sept. 12 against the visiting Royals. Buehler is 8-13 with a 5.42 ERA in 39 games with the Dodgers in 2024 and the Red Sox in 2025, which is third-worst among pitchers with at least 35 starts. The Red Sox released him Friday.

Buehler, 31, had hip surgery during the 2024 season and has not been the same since. But, apparently, at this moment he’s better than Andrew Painter.

Other realities about the Phillies:

This has been true even without ace Zack Wheeler, unless they face the Mets.

In the 10 games that bookended the disastrous, three-game sweep in Queens, Phillies starters allowed 16 earned runs in 61⅔ innings, an ERA of 2.33. They struck out 77 and walked just 11.

Orion Kerkering is fading again. Last year, from early July through the end of his second season, Kerkering suffered a loss and blew two saves. His ERA was 2.34 through his first 39 appearances this season and 4.86 over his last 20. Through 50 appearances this year, his ERA was 2.62. In his last nine games entering Monday, he’d blown two saves, with a 6.75 ERA.

José Alvarado returned from an 80-game suspension two weeks ago looking like a pitcher who needed to go through spring training again. In his last three games entering Monday he had allowed four hits, two walks, three runs, and a homer.

His metric of defensive runs saved, according to FanGraphs.com, was minus-26 in his first two seasons with the Phillies, which was dead last among qualifying shortstops. This season it’s plus-1, which ranks ninth.

This is probably the most chilling reality. Mets top prospect Nolan McLean shut them out for eight innings last week, Braves ace Chris Sale dominated them for six innings Saturday in his return from a two-month layoff, and Braves rookie Hurston Waldrep baffled them with a split-fingered fastball for 5⅔ innings on Sunday Night Baseball. The Phillies scored two runs against those starters, and those were homers from part-time players Brandon Marsh against Waldrep and Weston Wilson against Sale.

» READ MORE: Hayes: Zack Wheeler’s surgery and long absence resets the Phillies’ immediate and long-term future

Against those three starters, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper were a combined 1-for-17 with an intentional walk. That might sound like cherry-picking for bad stats, but Schwarber and Harper are MVP-caliber players whose job it is to produce against the best pitching, which, ostensibly, is what they’ll see in the postseason. Production droughts against excellent pitching are what doomed the Phillies the last two postseasons.

He’s still slow and still doesn’t track the ball instinctively, but Castellanos’ first step and his mechanics have improved vastly the last 2½ seasons. His throw to the plate in the fifth inning Friday saved a run and was a fine example of his improvement. His postgame dissatisfaction at being replaced defensively, while professionally delivered and honestly stated, was a fine example of his inability to accept the bigger picture.

He’s streaky but deadly. Schwarber this season has made himself an extra $10 million per season, and maybe $60 million total, in his next contract.

Schwarber hit four home runs and drove in nine runs Thursday in a 19-4 laugher that ran his total to a career-best 49 home runs.

He also has 119 RBIs, which leads the majors. Schwarber, who might have gotten $80 million for four years before this season began, now seems certain to crack the $30 million salary mark, which would be a record for a designated hitter (excluding Shohei Ohtani, whose contract is bloated because he’s also an elite starting pitcher). And Schwarber is just 32, so a contract for five or six seasons isn’t out of the question. David Ortiz was 32 when he signed a four-year deal in 2008, and he had nine more productive seasons.

He had a seven-week run with a .905 OPS, but was at .660 before that and he entered Monday in a 1-for-23 slump with 11 strikeouts in six games. The good news: He surged in two of his last three Septembers.