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Taking stock of the playoff race — and the Sixers’ position in it — entering the regular season’s stretch run

Before Friday's win over Toronto, the Sixers had a 92.6% chance to finish third, according to Basketball-Reference.com. The Brooklyn Nets are projected to finish sixth.

Doc Rivers and the Sixers are gearing up for the regular season's stretch run.
Doc Rivers and the Sixers are gearing up for the regular season's stretch run.Read moreYong Kim / Staff Photographer

Georges Niang said he allowed himself to exhale “for two seconds” earlier this week, after the 76ers completed their gauntlet of playing 12 out of 15 games on the road.

But …

“Then you have Dallas. Then you have Toronto. Then you’ve got to go to Milwaukee, and you got Boston and Miami,” the Sixers forward said hours before Friday’s victory over the Raptors at the Wells Fargo Center. “And then you have Atlanta and Brooklyn. You got all teams that are not going to be like, ‘Ah, we can drop this game.’ Those teams need to rack up wins.”

» READ MORE: Mailbag: Would the Sixers fare better as the No. 4 seed?

Niang had rattled off all of the Sixers’ remaining regular-season games, an indicator of how quickly the playoffs are approaching. And with five contests to go, postseason positioning is starting to crystalize.

After the win over Toronto, the Sixers (51-26) have a whopping 98.8% chance to land in the Eastern Conference’s No. 3 spot, according to Basketball-Reference.com’s probability report, which is generated from 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season. That likely would set up a first-round matchup against the Brooklyn Nets, which is far less spicy than it would have been a couple months ago following the trades of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving along with Ben Simmons’ shutdown for the rest of the season because of an ongoing back issue.

Yet the Sixers still must navigate the NBA’s toughest stretch-run schedule based on opponent win percentage, according to Tankathon.com, though that calculation does not take game location, rest advantage, injuries, and other intangibles into account. The Sixers’ upcoming slate includes marquee showdowns at the Milwaukee Bucks and against the Boston Celtics — the teams in front of them in the Eastern Conference standings — on Sunday and Tuesday, respectively.

Here’s a breakdown of where the East playoff picture stands with about a week remaining in the regular season.

The race for seeding

No. 1 Milwaukee Bucks

Record: 55-22

Lead East by: 1½ games

Strength of schedule: Seventh

Probability to finish first: 67.7% (second: 32.2%)

Marquee game remaining: Sunday vs. Sixers

The race for the East’s top spot is still important to monitor for the Sixers, because it will determine their second-round opponent. So far, the Bucks have proven to be a more favorable matchup for the Sixers than the Celtics. After getting blasted by Boston on Thursday, the Bucks get time to rest (or stew) before hosting the Sixers. Milwaukee also will face some motivated opponents after that. Wednesday’s foe, the Chicago Bulls, enter Saturday in 10th, while the Raptors are aiming to move up to that 7-8 matchup. Bucks standout guard Khris Middleton’s continued reacclimation after missing much of the season with a knee injury remains a story line.

No. 2 Boston Celtics

Record: 54-24

Trail first-place Bucks by: 1½ games; lead third-place Sixers by: 2½ games

Strength of schedule: Ninth

Probability to finish second: 67% (first: 32.2%)

Marquee game remaining: Tuesday at Sixers

Following Friday’s win against Utah on the second night of a back-to-back, the Celtics have three days to rest before playing the Sixers on Tuesday on the road. Boston already has the tiebreaker over the Sixers after winning the first three regular-season matchups, including a late-February thriller in Philly capped by Jayson Tatum’s last-second three-pointer. The Raptors and Atlanta Hawks, who enter Saturday with an identical 38-39 record, likely still will be trying to win when they face Boston.

No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 48-30

Trail third-place Sixers by: 3½ games

Strength of schedule: 30th

Probability to finish fourth: 98.6%

Marquee game remaining: Sunday vs. Indiana

Though Friday’s loss to the Knicks was a blow to the Cavaliers’ last-minute effort to surpass the Sixers, their schedule now turns into the softest in the league. The Pacers, Magic, and Hornets are playing for draft lottery odds instead of on-court victories. The Sixers also hold the regular-season tiebreaker over the Cavaliers after their victory in Cleveland earlier this month. Cleveland actually has a higher possibility of finishing fifth (1.1%) than third (0.4%).

Most likely first-round opponents

No. 5 New York Knicks

Record: 45-33

Lead sixth-place Nets by: 2½ games

Strength of schedule: 25th

Probability to finish fifth: 96.6%

Marquee game remaining: Friday at New Orleans

Friday’s win over Cleveland was a big one for the Knicks — and perhaps a sign that they can withstand All-Star forward Julius Randle’s late-season sprained ankle. The Pelicans might be the only motivated team the Knicks face the rest of the way.

No. 6 Brooklyn Nets

Record: 42-35

Trail fifth-place Knicks by: 2½ games

Strength of schedule: 26th

Probability to finish sixth: 88.4%

Marquee game remaining: Tuesday vs. Minnesota

Even before the Nets and Sixers won Friday, this by far was the most likely first-round matchup. Brooklyn has stabilized following a five-game skid, winning three of its past four games — including Friday’s victory over the Hawks. Former Villanova star Mikal Bridges has continued to blossom into a bona fide scorer since the Nets acquired him in the Durant blockbuster trade with the Phoenix Suns, averaging 27.5 points in 22 games with the Nets after Friday’s 42-point outburst.

No. 7 Miami Heat

Record: 40-37

Trail sixth-place Nets by: 2 games

Strength of schedule: 28th

Probability to finish seventh: 40%

Marquee game remaining: Saturday vs. Dallas

After making a push to get out of the play-in tournament, Miami has lost three in a row — including falling to the Knicks and Nets. They have a higher likelihood to finish eighth (22.3%) than sixth (9.3%). The Mavericks will be desperate to stay in the West’s play-in race when they play in Miami Saturday, and Thursday’s Heat-Sixers matchup in Philly still could have stakes. Heat guard Kyle Lowry’s health remains a story line, as he is not yet playing in both games of a back-to-back.