Eagles-only seven-round mock draft: Defensive needs addressed in five of first six picks

The Eagles enter the NFL draft tonight with 10 picks: Two in the first round (No. 15, 18 overall), one in the second round (No. 51), two in the third round (No. 83, 101), one in the fourth round (No. 124), three in the fifth round (No. 154, 162, 166) and one in the seventh round (No. 237).

More than likely, they won’t end up staying at those spots, and the prediction here is that general manager Howie Roseman will do some early maneuvering that alters where they end up. Before I get into detail about each Eagles pick, here are my predictions for how the draft plays out:

I have a hard time seeing Davis fall to the Eagles if they stay at No. 15. It’s possible, especially if quarterbacks go early. But 6-foot-6, 341-pound interior linemen who run 4.78-second 40-yard dashes just don’t fall off trees, as Roseman is wont to say, and in a draft that is thought to be lacking in difference-makers, not many teams will pass on Davis’ freakish athleticism.

The Eagles will thus likely have to move up for Davis. The same could be said of any one of the dozen or so difference-makers they may also covet. Would Roseman be willing to jump into the top six for an edge rusher like Kayvon Thibodeaux or a cornerback Sauce Gardner? It’s possible. He has the two first rounders it would take to make that vault.

But I think a mini-leap is more probable. Roseman has done well before when targeting a specific first-round prospect that is within striking range. If my first-round mock draft holds — unlikely, but let’s assume so for the sake of this enterprise – Davis would make it out of the top 10. But the Vikings (No. 12), Seahawks (No. 13 after a projected trade), and Ravens (No. 14) would all be conceivable landing spots.

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Washington has been linked to first-round receivers. I could see the Commanders, who have only six total picks, open to trading back if wide receivers Garrett Wilson and Jameson Williams were off the board at No. 11. The Eagles would have to give up something like the No. 15 pick, their second third-round pick (101st overall) and one of their three fifth-round picks to move up four spots for Davis based upon most value charts.

Davis was primarily a run stuffer for the Bulldogs and didn’t often rush the passer. And maybe that’s his ceiling in the NFL. But for the Eagles to forfeit so much, they would need to project him as a three down-caliber interior lineman. I believe they have. In fact, the excitement for Davis has reached a crescendo that has penetrated the normally soundproof NovaCare Complex walls.

Do they have other favorites? Absolutely. But there has been too much noise around Davis to ignore it. And with the Eagles’ penchant for drafting linemen in the top half of the first round, Davis’ significant upside at a premium position, and Fletcher Cox’s nearing expiration date, Roseman could be aggressive.

Other possibilities: Williams, edge Jermaine Johnson, cornerback Derek Stingley, Jr., safety Kyle Hamilton.

Since I’m all-in on a move up for Davis, I think Roseman will then be comfortable moving back from No. 18 in the first round to accumulate more Day 2 picks and possibly future ones next year. I have him doing so via two trade backs with the Chiefs and Falcons. The first will net the Eagles the No. 29 pick in the first and the No. 94 overall pick in the third from Kansas City. The second will give them the Falcons’ second rounder (No. 43) and their second third-round pick (No. 82 overall). They get back the third rounder they surrendered for Davis, and another they can trade (the Chiefs’ No. 94) to add to their 2023 haul when drafting a quarterback could be more of a reality.

Roseman trading out of the back end of the first round may not be possible, and having him do so twice may be a stretch. Many teams reportedly want to do the same. There just don’t seem to be anywhere near a full slate of first round-caliber prospects. I could see a few teams wanting to move up to No. 18 for a quarterback to get ahead of other quarterback-needy teams. And if the Eagles were to follow my projected double trade back in the first, some teams may want to climb back into the late first for a quarterback and that all-important fifth-year option. Four years ago, the Ravens traded back in with the Eagles for Lamar Jackson.

» READ MORE: Eagles enter NFL draft’s first round with two premium picks and the ammunition to trade up

The greatest value in this draft, according to many evaluators, is expected to be on Day 2. You could throw a blanket over about 50 prospects and not have much difference in the average draft grade of all 32 teams. But there are going to be varied opinions and this could be where teams make or break their classes. Roseman, in my scenario, would have four shots to find starters. That’s some pretty good odds.

I originally had Florida cornerback Kaiir Elam in this spot. But it seems the media has caught up with NFL opinion, and respected draft analysts such as NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah have him going as high as the first round. Jeremiah, who does broadcast work for the Chargers, even mocked him to Los Angeles at No. 17. Elam made sense, not only because of his length (6-2, 64th-percentile wingspan) and speed (a 4.39 40), but because of his mental makeup. He’s smart and confident and you need both traits to thrive at one of the toughest positions to play in the NFL.

Clemson’s Andrew Booth Jr. would be a comparable corner. In fact, some have him rated higher than Elam and Washington’s Kyler Gordon. He has all the necessary size and physical traits. He’s long enough at 6-0¼ and with a 76⅞-inch wingspan. He’s agile, swift and smooth in his movements. But there are medical concerns. He didn’t run at the combine on his pro day. He has a history of soft-tissue injuries. Maybe the Eagles’ recent success in handling muscle strains convinces them that they can fix Booth. But that’s a gamble.

Drafting Pickens would also take a significant roll of the dice. Some teams reportedly have taken him off the board over character concerns. He apparently has some growing up to do. But I wouldn’t underestimate the Eagles’ belief that their culture could set the kid right. The 21-year-old has all the necessary traits to be a first round receiver. He’s big (6-3, 198), fast for his size (4.47 40) and displayed a notable catch radius in college. He could be what the Eagles had hoped for when they drafted JJ Arcega-Whiteside. He suffered an ACL injury a year ago, but he showed resolve in returning for the final two games of last season.

Other possibilities: Edge David Ojabo, defensive tackle Perrion Winfrey, safety Jalen Pitre.

Jeremiah mocked Hamilton to the Eagles at No. 15. I think if he falls that far they might go against their history of not drafting safeties that high. I’ve just seen them prioritize other positions more and believe they should have an opportunity to address them before considering Hamilton. That said, I think safety is so great a need that they will end up with one by the end of Day 2. If they have two second-round picks as I’m forecasting, Brisker would represent solid value at 51.

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The 23-year-old may have been a late bloomer in college, but he earned second team All-American honors last season despite playing through a back injury. He’s has good size (6-1, 199), tested well at the combine, and played multiple spots in the Nittany Lions defense.

Other possibilities: receiver Christian Watson, linebacker Christian Harris, edge Nik Bonitto.

There’s been some hype about Jackson going as early as the first round, but I’m not buying it. The second round is possible. But I think the abundant number of quality edge rushers could drop second-tier prospects like Drake. He would be a steal, though, in the third round. The 6-foot-3, 254-pound edge displayed explosiveness and great bend for the Trojans. He struggled with his counter moves that required play strength. He sounds a little like Derek Barnett without the prodigious college sack numbers. That may be a faint comparison in these parts, but Jackson wouldn’t represent as much risk if drafted in the third round.

Other possibilities: Edge Kingsley Enagbare, linebacker Chad Muma, safety Nick Cross.

It may be a shock to some if the Eagles get to this point without drafting a cornerback, but they shouldn’t press a need early if the board doesn’t fall a particular way. There isn’t as much at stake later, though, and I could see Roseman double dipping at a position that is considered relatively deep in this year’s class.

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Bryant is a tier below the top corners, but he was as productive as his teammate at Cincinnati, Sauce Gardner, and was the winner of the Jim Thorpe Award as the nation’s top defensive back in 2021. He has good size (6-1⅜, 191), instincts, and great write-ups on his football IQ. The knock? No. 1, he didn’t run an elite 40 (4.54 seconds) at the combine. That could be an issue against deep NFL speed. But I think his smarts would allow him to jump in almost immediately in Jonathan Gannon’s zone-heavy scheme and start opposite Darius Slay.

Other possibilities: Guard Luke Goedeke, cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt, safety JT Woods.

Mathis (5-11, 196) would be insurance at the corner. He may have more upside than Bryant having run a 4.39 40. But it’s his competitiveness that may draw him most to the Eagles. I could see him playing almost anywhere in the secondary and having the toughness to move to safety. He’s a redshirt senior, but he missed all of 2020 with a non-football related shoulder injury. That’s less wear and tear on the body.

Other possibilities: Running back Dameon Pierce, safety Bryan Cook, tight end Charlie Kolar.

Kolar or Ohio State’s Jeremy Ruckert could be earlier tight end options, and are prospects with more experience at the position, but Woods may have greater potential. He went to Oklahoma State as a quarterback, but switched to tight end and eventually transferred to Virginia. He found his groove in Charlottesville and caught 44 passes for 598 yards and eight touchdowns as a senior.

Woods (6-7, 259) has some similarities with Tyree Jackson, who backed up Dallas Goedert for the Eagles in the second half of last season. Jackson, who didn’t transition from quarterback to tight end until after college, suffered a torn ACL in the season finale and Woods could come in and grab that No. 2 spot. He’ll probably need some seasoning, but there is ample potential.

Other possibilities: Cornerback Montaric Brown, receiver Kevin Austin, Jr., linebacker Malcolm Rodriquez.

Some have suggested the Eagles should begin planning for Jason Kelce’s eventual retirement as early as the first round by taking a center like Iowa’s Tyler Linderbaum. I would be shocked. In terms of positional value, the interior offensive line ranks near the bottom. The Eagles have more immediate needs. And they also already have three possible center replacement candidates on the roster in Landon Dickerson, Isaac Seumalo, and Nate Herbig.

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Oh, and Kelce may not call it quits in a year’s time. But I could certainly see the interior of the line being addressed on Day 3 and Tom seems as likely a target as any considering his versatility. The 6-4, 304-pounder played left tackle his last two seasons at Wake, but he projects inside and most likely at center. He’s athletic and ran a sub-five second 40 at the combine, which doesn’t often mean much for an offensive lineman, but wouldn’t it be nice to see Kelce’s replacement capable of bursting downfield ahead of runners on screens and pulls?

Other possibilities: Linebacker Myjai Sanders, defensive tackle Zachary Carter, edge Dominique Robinson.

Roseman loves selecting third-day running backs. He’s taken five in his 11 previous drafts. I think there are any number of possibilities, namely Florida’s Dameon Pierce, Alabama’s Brian Robinson and James Cook, another Georgia tailback, in the fourth or fifth round. White may be rated the best of the group and based on talent alone, a Day 2-caliber prospect. But running backs drop and he could be hanging around into the fifth round.

The same happened last year with Kenneth Gainwell. White played for the national champions last year, so it’s unlikely he’ll drift under the radar like Gainwell, who sat out the year before the draft. He led the Bulldogs in rushing, contributed as a returner, and was a team captain. He’s also torn ACLs in both knees, wasn’t asked to do much on third downs, and isn’t exactly a shifty back. But he’s powerful, explosive and would complement Miles Sanders and offer a replacement plan if Sanders were to walk next offseason.

Other possibilities: Safety Verone McKinley III, punter Matt Araiza.

OK, bear with me here. I mentioned Araiza as a possibility in the fifth round. The guy can boom 80-yard punts like it’s nothing. But some old-school team, I believe, will draft him way before they should. Stout didn’t showcase the power of Araiza, but he wasn’t that far behind. He was also more consistent with punts inside the 10, which may be a more important characteristic.

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I also liked that he handled kickoffs and field goals for the Lions. He won’t be asked to do either with Jake Elliott in-house, at least to start, but he offers a backup in case of emergency. Some teams have a rule against drafting specialists. Analytics people want to see punting devalued. But it’s still an important part of the game and Arryn Siposs was a near-disaster down the stretch last season.

Other possibilities: Tackle Matt Waletzko, cornerback Zyon Gilbert, center Dawson Deaton.