Eagles vs. Bears in Week 3: Here are the numbers that matter

The Eagles are 2-0, though maybe not in the manner you envisioned.

Their third game of the season is a Monday Night Football showdown on the road at the Chicago Bears, a game that may lose some of its luster should Caleb Williams miss the game for the Bears with his hamstring injury.

Williams’ status is a major story line, but there are other factors and trends at play.

Here are some numbers worth paying attention to.

That’s where the Eagles rank in success rate on first and second downs, according to Sportradar. As a reminder, there are 32 NFL teams.

The Eagles average a league-worst 2.6 yards per play on first down. The Dolphins rank 31st at 3.2 yards. The Eagles have, survived, however, because they have been one of the best teams in the NFL on third and fourth downs.

In fact, according to SumerSports, the Eagles have the largest difference in success rates between early downs and late downs to start a season since 2022.

» READ MORE: Offensive coordinator Sean Mannion talks Eagles’ early-down woes, potential Zach Ertz role

That is not a sustainable way to run an offense.

“We’re really close on a lot of our things on first and second down,” offensive coordinator Sean Mannion said on Wednesday.

Mannion has called a running play on 65% of first downs through two games. The Eagles currently rank 28th in yards per carry. Saquon Barkley’s status is up in the air after the running back suffered a stinger Sunday in Nashville. It won’t matter who is running if the Eagles don’t block better up front.

How the Eagles make adjustments on early downs will be something to watch Monday. Another sluggish performance from the offense could allow a team starting a backup quarterback to stay in the game.

Zach Ertz caught 71% of his targets over the last two seasons with the Washington Commanders, a number that is higher than his career catch rate of 67%.

He may soon be 36, but that’s not the sign of a declining player. What might be? Ertz’s average separation per target was 2.7 yards in his 13 games last season, his lowest since 2019.

» READ MORE: Does Zach Ertz still have the juice to contribute to the Eagles? Here’s what the film — and history — says

It’s hard to imagine Ertz being a much better separator after recovering from a major knee injury, but he has been a reliable target over the middle of the field in recent years. That’s what the Eagles need out of him if he indeed makes his return to the field Monday night as the team deals with Dallas Goedert’s absence.

Ertz, who is 11 catches away from becoming the team’s all-time receptions leader, has done a lot of his damage in the red zone — all 11 of his Commanders touchdowns over the last two seasons came on plays that started inside the 20-yard line — and the Eagles will need that type of big-body target with Goedert sidelined.

The Eagles missed a whopping 12 tackles Sunday against the Titans.

Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio said his unit has to “close space a little bit better.”

Well, here comes the team that ran all over the Eagles in 2025. The Bears ran for 281 yards in a Black Friday drubbing of the Eagles last November. And if Williams is out Monday night, the running game will be even more critical to Chicago’s success.

The two-headed running game for the Bears has already caused some damage through two games. According to Next Gen Stats, the Bears have rushed outside the tackles 28 times this season for 279 yards and six touchdowns.

» READ MORE: Eagles’ Vic Fangio says safety starters are staying put, won’t increase Cooper DeJean’s snaps at the position

They are the only team since at least 2018 with more than nine yards per carry or more than four touchdowns on outside runs over the first two weeks of a season. Kyle Monangai has racked up 119 yards on eight outside carries and has forced seven missed tackles on those runs.

The Eagles will need to clean up their tackling in a major way, especially if Monangai and D’Andre Swift make their way to the back line of the defense. Both safeties, Andrew Mukuba and Marcus Epps, were charged with three missed tackles apiece vs. Tennessee, according to Pro Football Focus.

Perhaps the Eagles are trying too hard to create a turnover and are missing tackles because of it.

“We have to tackle and not miss tackles because we’re trying to go for the ball,” Fangio said. “That bugs me.”

The Eagles haven’t created a turnover yet. It’s only been two games, but they’ve done something pretty rare.

» READ MORE: What we know (and don’t) about the Eagles entering Week 3 vs. the Bears

A tip of the hat to NBC Sports’ Reuben Frank for this stat: The Eagles are only the fifth team in NFL history to start a season 2-0 despite not creating a turnover. Two other teams haven’t created a turnover yet this season: Houston and Washington. They are both winless.

“We’re due,” Fangio said.

That’s how many games Ben Johnson has had to start a backup quarterback in his time as a head coach and offensive coordinator in the NFL, according to Next Gen. Jared Goff started all 51 games under Johnson when the coach was the coordinator in Detroit. Williams hasn’t missed a start since Johnson took over as Bears head coach last season.

Johnson has said that he wants to have the highest scoring offense in NFL history. That goal becomes a little more difficult to attain if Johnson is forced to turn to either Tyson Bagent or Case Keenum — neither of which has started a game since 2023 — on Monday night or beyond.

Listen to the latest episode

The Eagles survived -- again. This time, instead of holding on for dear life as they did in their opener against Washington, the Eagles came from behind in the final minutes to pull out a gutsy win at Tennessee, with their quarterback leading the way. With the Eagles 2-0, The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Jeff McLane and Mike Sielski examine Jalen Hurts’ promising performance through two games, and dig into the uneven play of the defense. Listen here.

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