Flyers vs. Penguins: Key matchups, X-factors, and predictions for the first-round playoff series
Who has the edge offensively, defensively, in net, and on special teams in the Battle of Pennsylvania? Let's go to the tale of the tape.
The eighth playoff “Battle of Pennsylvania” commences on Saturday night when the Flyers visit the Pittsburgh Penguins for Game 1 of their Eastern Conference first-round series.
The two teams split the season series, with the Flyers winning twice in a shootout and the Penguins holding the cards with 16 goals scored to the Flyers’ nine. But the Flyers’ 5-1 loss was all the way back on Dec. 1, and snapped a three-game winning streak — it’s been more than two years since the Orange and Black have won four straight. Tyson Foerster was also seriously hurt in that game. The Orange and Black’s other defeat came during January’s swoon.
Here’s a breakdown of the key matchups and who has the edge in each category:
» READ MORE: Flyers-Penguins playoff series will start Saturday night; first home game since 2018 set for Wednesday
Offense
The Penguins scored 3.54 goals per game, which ranked third in the NHL behind Colorado and Carolina. A big part of that was their potent power play, but they were also effective at five-on-five, scoring the second-most goals in the NHL at that strength. Sidney Crosby is still the Penguins’ offensive engine, and led the team with 74 points in 68 games.
The Flyers struggled to get going offensively for most of the season, but they averaged 3.56 goals over the final month as they surged for the playoffs. While their offense found form at the right time, the Penguins get a slight edge for their consistency across 82 games. — Gabriela Carroll
Edge: Penguins
Game 1: Flyers at Penguins, 8 p.m. Saturday, NBCSP/ESPN
Game 2: Flyers at Penguins, 7 p.m. Monday, NBCSP/ESPN
Game 3: Penguins at Flyers, 7 p.m. Wednesday, NBCSP/TNT/truTV/HBO MAX
Game 4: Penguins at Flyers, 8 p.m. April 25, NBCSP/TBS/truTV/HBO MAX
*Game 5: Flyers at Penguins, April 27 (Time TBD)
*Game 6: Penguins at Flyers, April 29 (Time TBD)
*Game 7: Flyers at Penguins, May 2 (Time TBD)
Defense
Early in the season, the Flyers leaned on a stingy defense — a hallmark of Rick Tocchet teams — but after a January collapse that featured weak-side goal after weak-side goal, things needed to change. And they did. The Flyers became one of the NHL’s best at preventing goals after they implemented some changes during the Olympic break, including tweaking coverage for the wingers in the defensive zone. You cannot throw the baby out with the bathwater, but after Feb. 25, the Flyers ranked second-best in goals allowed per game at 2.38. Pittsburgh allowed the fifth-highest total at 3.69 in that same 26-game timeframe, and there’s a lot to be said for momentum heading into the playoffs. — Jackie Spiegel
Edge: Flyers
Goaltending
The Flyers have the most obvious edge in goal, where Dan Vladař will likely be opposed by Stuart Skinner, who, with Edmonton, had some playoff moments to forget and was notoriously up-and-down in the postseason. The Penguins flipped goalie Tristan Jarry, who had a few notable playoff disasters of his own, for Skinner in December, and the latter posted an .885 save percentage and 2.99 goals-against average in 27 starts with Pittsburgh.
Skinner has 50 games of playoff experience over three years with the Oilers, making it to two Cup finals. In those games, he put up an .893 save percentage and a 2.88 goals-against average.
Vladař had a breakout first season with the Flyers, posting a career-best 2.42 GAA — third among qualified goalies — and a .906 save percentage in 52 games. But he’s much less experienced in the postseason, appearing in just two playoff games, neither as the starter, with his last appearance coming in 2022 with Calgary. — Carroll
Edge: Flyers
» READ MORE: 10 highlights from the Flyers-Penguins rivalry, from Keith Primeau’s OT heroics to hatred for Sidney Crosby
Special teams
It’s no secret that the edge clearly belongs to the Penguins here. Sure, you can look at the stats where they were seventh on the power play (24.1%) and tied for sixth on the penalty kill (81.4%). But add in Crosby — who has 60 goals and 139 points in 93 regular-season games and owns the record for most postseason points and assists against the Flyers — setting up shop around the net, and Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, and Erik Karlsson circling, and yeah, the puck’s bound to go in with the man advantage.
Especially considering Philly’s penalty kill was a rollercoaster. Although the unit ranked 22nd across the season at 77.6%, since March 30, it was successful at just a 65.2% clip, allowing eight goals in 23 opportunities. Three of those goals were surrendered to the Detroit Red Wings in Game 79.
As for the infamous Flyers power play? Here’s a rare positive: after Martone made his NHL debut on March 31, the Flyers’ power play ranked 21st at 17.4% and looked better than that.
But overall, the power play finished in a familiar spot: dead last in the NHL at 15.7%. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Flyers were ninth in shot attempts with the man advantage, pointing to execution and finishing as the issues. Tocchet said he’ll be band-aiding the power play for now, and while the addition of Porter Martone has helped, facing a penalty kill tied for sixth — fourth among the teams that made the playoffs — will be a tall task. — Spiegel
Edge: Penguins
Coaching
There were question marks when Pittsburgh hired Dan Muse. There were question marks when Philly hired Tocchet. Yet here we are. Entering the season, neither team was expected to make the playoffs, but both reached 98 points, and they finished second and third in the Metropolitan Division, respectively.
Some might say Muse, 43, had it somewhat easy with that Hall of Fame Core Four in place, but goaltending, defense, and depth were major concerns entering the season. A former college coach and NHL assistant, Muse has hit all the right buttons for Pittsburgh in his first year as an NHL head coach.
But the Flyers have Tocchet, a Stanley Cup winner as a player and a two-time Stanley Cup winner as an assistant coach with none other than Pittsburgh. It gives the Flyers a massive experience edge as Tocchet has seen it all from the player perspective and as a long-time assistant and head coach in the league.
And a lot of credit for the Flyers’ turnaround goes to the bench boss. He tweaked the systems, especially in the defensive zone, after speaking with the then-unemployed Peter DeBoer when they were working together for Hockey Canada at the Olympics. DeBoer provided some external insight on the Flyers’ issues, and Tocchet liked what he heard and had his staff implement them during the break’s mini training camp.
Did DeBoer, who became the New York Islanders coach on April 6, just days before the Flyers all-but-eliminated them, regret it? “Five days before [he took] the job, he said he was obviously rooting me on,” Tocchet said on Tuesday. “And then he called me when he took the job, the next day, and he goes, ‘I hope you lose every [expletive] game.’” — Spiegel
Edge: Flyers
» READ MORE: Matvei Michkov is 5,100 miles away from his home in Russia. But in Philly, ‘life has become easier’
X-factor:
Porter Martone: The Flyers will need to match fire with fire, and Martone is just starting his journey toward becoming the player the Flyers hope he can be. He has four goals and 10 points in nine career games, and is already proving he belongs at the NHL level. The Flyers went 6-3-0 after Martone got the call-up, and in theory, the 19-year-old’s game should be perfectly suited for the playoffs. — Carroll
The Flyers’ fourth line: A series is not one game or one moment. It’s a long stretch, and while you need players like Martone, Owen Tippett, and Matvei Michkov to pile up the points, the fourth line can not only get under people’s skin but also pressure Pittsburgh with its forecheck. These series can get long, so wearing down the opposition physically — Garnet Hathaway ranks ninth in the NHL with 252 hits despite playing fewer games than anyone in the top 15 — can impact how things go. Add in that Luke Glendening and Sean Couturier are valuable in the face-off circle, not to mention the captain’s late-season offensive push, and that trio should play a big role. Plus among players who have skated in at least 50 games, Hathaway is second in the NHL for penalties drawn per 60 minutes (2.10).
Predictions
Jackie: Flyers in 6
The Flyers will lose Game 1, probably, because winning four straight — even if it’s crossing the regular season-playoff boundary — seems to be beyond this team. But they thrive amid adversity, as evidenced by their eye-popping 18-7-1 record after a loss, including a 7-1 mark since hockey restarted in late February. The Penguins? They limped into the playoffs — yes, they didn’t really play their regulars the last few games — but they went 12-10-4 across the same 26 games while averaging 3.81 goals and allowing 3.69. The Flyers? They scored three goals a game but allowed only 2.38, the best among playoff teams.
Gabriela: Flyers in 7
The Flyers have found their form since the Olympic break, defying the odds to make the playoffs for the first time since 2020. It’ll be a tough series, especially since the Penguins’ special teams are so strong, an area the Flyers are generally lacking. But I’ll pick the Flyers in a coin flip, since the Penguins have been sliding over the last month, while the Flyers have only gotten better.
» READ MORE: After 13 years and 820 games, Rasmus Ristolainen says it ‘feels good’ to finally make the playoffs
