Another poll of Pennsylvania voters finds Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump in the critical battleground state, the latest in a string of surveys that show the former vice president with a substantial lead.
Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee for president, has support from 50% of likely Pennsylvania voters, compared with 42% who back Trump, according to a Morning Consult Political Intelligence poll released Tuesday.
The results broadly align with numerous public surveys that show Biden with a sizable lead in a state that is usually closely divided.
Other recent Pennsylvania polls by Fox News, CNBC/Change Research, and Monmouth University found Biden leading by 11 points, 8, and 13 percentage points respectively. Slightly more than three months remain until Election Day.
The Morning Consult poll finds a potentially significant shift among independents, who favored Biden by 12 percentage points, 46% to 34%. Trump won independents in Pennsylvania by 7 percentage points in 2016, according to exit polls.
That change, if it holds, could prove significant in a state decided by less than one percentage point in 2016, when Trump’s surprise victory helped secure his national win.
Pennsylvania is again seen as one of the most important swing states in the country, with both parties pouring money, time, and staff into the Keystone State. Jill Biden, Joe Biden’s wife, and Sen. Bob Casey (D., Pa.) are holding a virtual event on school re-openings Tuesday in Pittsburgh, and Vice President Mike Pence is set to visit Westmoreland County on Thursday for a “Cops for Trump” event, his second visit to the state this month.
Biden has also held a series of events in the state over the past two months.
Trump seemed to be railing against the recent polling Sunday when he tweeted, “There is NO WAY a place like Pennsylvania can vote for the Radical Left and their puppet, Joe Biden.”
But the president’s support has appeared to drop nationally and in Pennsylvania as he has confronted the coronavirus, an economic collapse, and protests against systemic racism and police brutality.
The Morning Consult poll found that Democrats in Pennsylvania back Biden over Trump 89% to 9%. Among Republicans, 84% support Trump and 9% back Biden. The survey of 2,100 likely Pennsylvania voters was conducted from July 17 to 26 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
The poll, like others, is a snapshot in time, and the race could change. Republicans argue that polls can’t be trusted, pointing to Trump’s defiance of expectations in 2016, and say Biden will stumble as voters get a closer look at him and his policies. They also argue that an economic revival, which Trump has promised, could lift the president.
Democrats, for their part, are cautiously optimistic about recent polling, but are still stung by 2016 and warning supporters not to take anything for granted. Members of both parties predict the race is likely to tighten as the election nears.