🔥 We’re roasting the 2022 candidates | Election Newsletter
For all but the winners, their vulnerabilities will end up outweighing their strengths. Only two will become their party’s nominee. Consider this a pre-mortem on the rest.
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Even our sources would tell you we’re pretty nice people (we think). But today, we’re bringing the shade.
We’re going to explain why your favorite Senate candidate is going to lose.
A little negative? Well, yeah. Because all the major candidates have their strengths, and we can make an argument for why many of them could win. But they’ll do that themselves, spending millions to tell you how spectacular they are.
What they won’t talk about is their weaknesses. And for all but the winners, the vulnerabilities will end up outweighing the strengths. Only two will become their party’s nominee. So consider this a pre-mortem on the rest.
We’re not saying all these things will go wrong. But if your chosen one does stumble, here are the most likely reasons why.
THE DEMOCRATS
John Fetterman: Yes, some people really love him. But a majority? In swing-state Pennsylvania? This isn’t a Bronx congressional district. While the shorts and Carharrt thing might work with some progressives and the rural voters looking for an everyman, let’s see how it plays with white-collar suburbanites who have become key Democratic voters. Let’s see how the infamous jogger incident goes down in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia — where the vast majority of Democratic voters are. And when party leaders keep passing on the clear front-runner, you wonder what they’re seeing.
Conor Lamb: Yeah, he’s battle tested in general elections when swing voters are key. But what about in primaries when you have to appeal to a progressive base? He’s never had to win one of those. And the moderate positions that helped Lamb in tough House races don’t exactly excite the left. Even establishment donors haven’t rallied behind him in a substantial way. Dems aren’t just looking for a 37-year-old Joe Biden.
Malcolm Kenyatta: Working hard. Great message. Great delivery. But good luck getting anyone to hear it with less than $300,000 in the bank. People keep telling us they like him but aren’t backing him because they don’t think he can win. That’s a surefire way to make sure he doesn’t.
THE REPUBLICANS
David McCormick: Hedge fund leader. CEO. Bush alum. Jet-setting Treasury official who promoted free trade and economic connections to China. Sounds great — for the 2012 Republican Party. But his attempts to go MAGA went pop when Donald Trump endorsed his main rival.
Mehmet Oz: You know there’s a ton of opposition research on you when your rivals hardly bother to mention that you’ve barely lived in Pennsylvania. They’re too busy listing Oz’s past apostasies on guns, abortion, fracking, and more — often on camera on his own show. Sure, Trump had his own breaks with conservatism. But Oz isn’t Trump, even with the former president’s endorsement.
Kathy Barnette: She’s among the best in the field at delivering a sharp line. But she’s got fringe ties without the money or big name ID. A few good zingers don’t make for a statewide win.
Jeff Bartos: Nice guy, hustling, doing things the right way. But what constituency is waking up stoked to vote Bartos? The Lower Merion developer just hasn’t excited anyone.
Carla Sands: Somehow only the third-richest Republican who recently moved to Pennsylvania (from Bel-Air and the U.S. embassy in Denmark). Can’t match Oz and McCormick’s spending, and while she has tried to tie herself to Trump, she’s now missed out on his endorsement twice.
Overheard on the campaign trail
“Let’s just let the air out… Conor Lamb is not a socialist and neither am I, but the truth is we’ve both been called that by Republicans and still won.”
—Fetterman, campaigning in Plymouth Meeting last weekend.
What else you should know
Money makes the campaigns go round. We got a look at lots of money over the weekend: new fund-raising reports for every candidate and McCormick’s public disclosure of his massive personal wealth.: It turns out Oz and McCormick are mostly just paying for their campaigns themselves. They’ve combined to spend $18 million of their own cash in the country’s most expensive Senate primary.
Cash flow. And now we also know (kinda) how rich they both are: Oz’s assets are worth $104 million to $422 million, while McCormick has assets of between $116 million and $290 million. And because the Senate reporting rules are loose, they might actually be worth a whole lot more. We do know this: McCormick made $25 mil in salary last year alone.
The undercard: We haven’t written much about the primaries for lieutenant governor, but they’ve been heating up with some interesting mudslinging on both the Republican and Democratic sides.
Ask the candidates a question
We’re partnering with Spotlight PA and other news outlets to host Democratic and Republican Senate debates next week. Julia will help moderate Monday’s Democratic debate, Jon for Tuesday’s Republican debate. What should we ask? Send us your questions.
What to watch for next: more debates!
Thursday, April 21: Democratic Senate debate at ABC27 studios in Harrisburg.
Monday, April 25: Democratic Senate debate at Dickinson College in Carlisle.
Monday, April 25: Republican Senate debate at ABC27 studios in Harrisburg.
Tuesday, April 26: Republican Senate debate at Dickinson College in Carlisle.
Wednesday, April 27: Republican gubernatorial debate at ABC27 studios in Harrisburg.
Other dates to watch
May 2: The last day to register to vote in the May 17 primary.
May 10: Applications for mail ballots must be received by county elections offices by 5 p.m.
May 17: Completed mail ballots must be received by county elections offices by 8 p.m.
Thanks for reading! We’ll be back with a whole lot more next week.