Joe Biden is in a strong position to win Pennsylvania heading into the final hours of the presidential campaign, according to three new polls.
And the Monmouth University Polling Institute found Biden leading 51% to 44% in a high-turnout scenario, while he has a smaller 50% Biden to 45% edge in a low turnout scenario — likely one in which a large number of mail ballots are rejected. Most analysts expect huge turnout in this election, projections which have been backed up by surges in early voting.
Those three polls are consistent with weeks of major surveys finding Biden steadily ahead by about 5 to 8 percentage points in the state. Biden led 49% to 44% in a Muhlenberg College poll released Saturday, within that survey’s margin of error.
Biden’s lead in the Monmouth survey is smaller than its poll last month, which was conducted after the first presidential debate. But most polls have shown little movement. Opinions on Trump appear fixed.
The consistency of the poll numbers, including support for the president stuck in the low to mid-40s, suggests a difficult path for Trump in a state that he knows is critical.
A Trump victory in Pennsylvania would likely depend on polls drastically undercounting his support, or problems with voting — such as mail ballots returned as “naked ballots” with missing inner secrecy envelopes, or litigation to dismiss a large share of ballots after Election Day.
Trump backers dismiss the polls, arguing that they don’t capture the enthusiasm of his supporters and were wrong in the last presidential race.
Both plan to be back in Pennsylvania on Monday.