Who’s going to win in Pennsylvania? Here are 7 things to watch on Election Day.

It’s finally here.

After more than a year of campaigning, ads that took over TVs across Pennsylvania, and visits by three presidents on Saturday, the state’s elections arrive Tuesday, with sweeping, national stakes.

As the results come in, here are some of the key factors we’ll be looking at for clues about who will win, and why.

Democrat Josh Shapiro faces Republican Doug Mastriano in the governor’s race, while the Senate contest is between Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz. Key House races are unfolding in Northeast Pennsylvania (District 8), the Lehigh Valley (District 7), and the Pittsburgh suburbs (District 17).

One thing we’ve learned is not to do predictions. Ever. Especially not in Pennsylvania.

But if you and Tom Wolf’s Jeep could travel to the future and tell us these answers, we might feel a bit better about it:

Conventional wisdom is that Democratic turnout dips in midterm elections, and there are warning signs about dissatisfaction with Biden, not to mention Fetterman’s relatively light schedule in Philly for much of the campaign.

But Shapiro, from Montgomery County, is essentially a local, and recent elections have seen huge turnout from both sides. If that energy carries into Philly on Tuesday, maybe Democrats defy historical trends. If not, they could be in trouble.

Oz has made a concerted effort to woo suburban voters, especially in the Philly collar counties, the once-red places that have steadily trended blue. Fetterman has tried the reverse in rural areas that have moved away from Democrats.

Neither has appeared to have huge success, but if either can shave off even a few percentage points in the others’ base, that could be decisive in a race likely to be decided by a small margin.

» READ MORE: It was a big day in Pa. politics: Biden, Obama, Trump made closing pitches for governor and Senate races

Trump inspired turnout in parts of Pa. that remade the entire map. But other Republicans haven’t been able to replicate it.

Can Oz — whose conservative credentials have come under fire? Or Mastriano — who fits the Trump mold but has had almost no advertising budget?

There’s an argument from the GOP that despite Mastriano’s lackluster campaign, he could help Oz by drawing out hard-core supporters who might not otherwise have voted for the celebrity surgeon.

The closest thing to a safe bet (and note we said closest thing, not sure thing) is a Shapiro win.

Public polls suggest it could be by double digits. If so, does Shapiro carry other Democrats over the finish line? Or are polls setting up Democrats for disappointment, again?

Keep an eye on how Pa.’s battleground House candidates do compared to similar candidates in other states. Everyone deserves credit for running their own races, but House campaigns often swing in the same direction.

If Pa. defies a national trend, the top of the ticket might be part of the explanation. (And if so, cue the Shapiro-for-president bandwagon.)

» READ MORE: The whole country will be watching Pa. on election night. Again.

One of the surprises of 2020 was the rightward shift among some groups of Latino voters.

Pennsylvania doesn’t have as large a Latino population as swing states such as Arizona, Nevada, and Florida, but in close races, there are still enough to be a difference-maker, especially in the Lehigh Valley.

Do Republicans continue gaining with this fast-growing demographic group? (Though it’s a broad umbrella covering distinct communities with differing interests and concerns.)

If the GOP keeps up their progress, it could shape politics nationwide.

After months of Democrats seeming to defy political gravity (and Biden’s poor poll numbers) on the strength of outrage over abortion rights, polls suggest that issue has receded in some voters’ minds while inflation has become even more prominent since the summer. That’s added up to more optimistic predictions for the GOP.

If a wave takes shape, Democrats could wash out of those House seats we mentioned above. If Democrats hang onto their majorities, though, it could signal that the power of the Dobbs decision was even greater than first realized.

Trump has put his weight into his party’s primaries like few former presidents before. That attempt at kingmaking has left the GOP with some famous but unorthodox candidates who are locked in tight races that perhaps shouldn’t be so tough, considering the historical midterm trends.

Oz is one of them. If he succeeds, Trump can claim credit.

But if he fails, Republicans might rue that the former president seemed more persuaded by celebrity than electability.

A version of this article appeared in our PA 2022 Election Newsletter. Sign up to get the newsletter delivered directly to your inbox.