Australia is up next in the USMNT’s World Cup run. Here’s how we think this one will shake out.

With the United States exhibiting one of its best opening performances in the history of the men’s World Cup, expectations are high for the team’s second Group D match against Australia on Friday (3 p.m., Fox29).

Reports indicate that the U.S. men’s soccer team, which thumped Paraguay, 4-1, in its opener last Saturday, expects a physical affair against the Australians, who surprised many in their 2-0 upset of Group D favorites Turkey in its opener in Vancouver.

This game is a rematch of an uber-physical game last October that broke out into a few skirmishes and in which the Aussies attempted to bully the U.S.

» READ MORE: The USMNT-Paraguay game was the most-watched soccer broadcast in U.S. history

The final score: United States 2, Australia 1.

Now, the pair are running it back. A win is another step closer to the U.S. winning the group or at least assuring a place in the knockout rounds. However, the Australians know that they could leapfrog the U.S. with a win and put themselves in the driver’s seat to win the group with a game remaining against Paraguay.

U.S. midfielder Sebastian Berhalter said earlier this week that head coach Mauricio Pochettino has the group in a “We’re American, we don’t take s—” mentality, which served the team pretty well against Paraguay.

How will it look against the Aussies?

Our group covering the World Cup and embedded with the U.S. camp in Irvine, Calif., weighed in and offered predictions.

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I said this in my report from the U.S. camp on Tuesday, and I meant it: as great as the opening win over Paraguay was, it was just one game. I expect Australia to be a very different opponent, tighter defensively and more physical. Though the Socceroos’ win over Turkey was an upset, it was no fluke. It took just one game for Nestory Irankunda to justify the hype as a breakout star this summer.

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It also was a physical contest when these teams met last October in a friendly in suburban Denver, one the U.S. came from behind to win 2-1.

No doubt both teams will be even more up for it this time, with first place in Group D at stake. So what will make the difference?

I’ll be romantic for a moment and say the atmosphere in Seattle is worth at least one goal for the U.S. If you’re new to soccer or only watch European games, you’re in for something you might not have seen from the sport in this country.

For over half a century, Seattle has been one of the best soccer cities in this country. It will be electric for this game, which has been a bucket-list item for fans ever since it was first announced in February 2024 that the U.S. would play its second group game there.

World Cups are about players and tactics, but they’re also about emotions. This will be a moment for that.

Prediction: United States 2, Australia 1.

The beauty of this one is that, like Paraguay, the core group of this U.S. men’s national team was on the field when they beat the Australians in that October friendly. Haji Wright scored twice. Chris Richards was there. So was Weston McKennie. Even Christian Pulisic, before he suffered a minor hamstring injury and left midway through the first half.

The point is, having that match so close to the World Cup feels serendipitous. Australia is big, strong, and has goal scorers, but I’d give the edge to the U.S. for more creativity and skill, specifically up top.

They’ll need to keep an eye on Connor Metcalfe, the Socceroos’ crafty center midfielder who plays for St. Pauli FC in Germany’s Bundesliga. Metcalfe’s vision was a catalyst behind many of Australia’s chances and he scored his nation’s crucial second goal against Turkey.

Come out flat, and the Aussies will make it a game. Come out as the U.S. did in the opener, creating one opportunity after another in the final third, and I don’t see a world in which the U.S. isn’t celebrating a win in front of a sold-out Seattle crowd.

Prediction: United States 3, Australia 1.

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I was talking to someone last Thursday when I told them I thought the U.S. was still a World Cup away from making noise. And then I watched them play like that on Friday night. I was in awe as the U.S. dominated Paraguay, playing like no American team I’d ever seen. It was beautiful. To me, it was the best performance in the history of American soccer. It felt like a hot take, but then people who have seen more than me all seemed to agree.

What we watched in the opener wasn’t a mirage. It was a byproduct of a U.S. system that is investing in youth development, a legitimate domestic league, and a team full of players who play for top-flight clubs led by a wizard-like manager. You’ll hear a lot about 2002 before Friday but remember that the 2002 team started just five players in the upset of Portugal who didn’t play in MLS. On Friday, the U.S. lineup included just two MLS players. The talent is just so much deeper, and it showed against Paraguay. This was different.

Friday felt like the start of a magical summer. The ride will continue against Australia, who won’t be able to beat the U.S. playing the way it did against Turkey. The Socceroos upset Turkey despite being outshot, 30-9. They parked the bus, and it worked. It won’t against the U.S., which are far more creative up front than Turkey. The U.S. will not be shut out if they take 30 shots on Friday afternoon.

» READ MORE: A USMNT history lesson is a reminder: The win over Paraguay was big, but it was only one game

Christian Pulisic looked like a man on a mission in his 45 minutes, and he seems on track to play Friday, Tyler Adams was excellent in the midfield, Malik Tillman made some fantastic passes, and the flight attendant who refused to let Folarin Balogun’s pregnant mother leave New York years ago might be responsible for a summer to remember. The U.S. no longer feels like they’re a “World Cup away.” Enjoy the ride.

Prediction: United States 3, Australia 1

The U.S. outperformed my optimistic prediction for its opener with a 4-1 thrashing of Paraguay on Friday. It was a dream start for the American side, but as Jonathan Tannenwald wrote on Tuesday, the win only matters if the U.S. can follow it up with two more quality performances in group play.

Can the U.S. contend with a fierce Australian side that surprised the rest of Group D with a 2-0 win over Turkey? It should be able to, though that task will get more complicated if Pulisic, nursing his hamstring, isn’t fully healthy.

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The USMNT will need to be vigilant when defending counter attacks, as Australia was brilliant on breaks in its opening match.

Pulisic or not, one of the States’ plethora of talented attackers will break through the fierce Australian low block that stymied Turkey, and the defense will hold up in transition to put the Americans atop Group D.

Prediction: United States 1, Australia 0

OK, I’ll be the party pooper.

The U.S. is bound for a bit of a letdown after their high-flying victory against Paraguay. One question I have is the health of Pulisic, who was pulled at halftime after being kicked in the calf. As Tannenwald reported, Pulisic is expected to be healthy for their matchup with Australia but trained mostly on his own Wednesday.

There’s also history to contend with. In 2002, the U.S. pulled off a major upset by defeating Portugal, but followed it up with a tie against South Korea in a hard-fought game they were lucky not to lose.

Australia is coming off a 2-0 upset victory of Turkey, and Irankunda could present some real challenges for America’s defense. The Socceroos also played the U.S. tough in a physical friendly back in October, which the Americans ultimately won, 2-1.

Thankfully, the atmosphere in Seattle will be terrific, and that will count for something. The U.S. will remain in first place in Group D following the game, but it won’t be because of a victory.

Prediction: United States 1, Australia 1.

The World Cup in Philly

Nine nations will compete in five group stage matches this summer, plus two more in a knockout game on July 4. Here’s what you need to know about those countries — and what those fans need to know about Philly. Click here for more.