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Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz odds: Who do bookmakers favor in PPV boxing clash?

Two of the biggest trash talkers in combat sports will exchange blows in August — and one is a big betting favorite

Jake Paul (left) misses with a punch during his battle against Tommy Fury in February. Paul, who lost a split-decision to Fury to fall to 6-1 as a pro boxer, has agreed to take on former UFC star Nate Diaz in a boxing match on Aug. 5 in Dallas. (Photo by Francois Nel/Getty Images)Read moreFrancois Nel / Getty Images

by Matt Jacob, Action Network

Published Apr. 13, 2023, 2:15 p.m. ET

What happens when an internet sensation-turned-boxer with all of seven professional fights steps into the ring against a former mixed martial arts champion who has never fought outside of the octagon?

Combat sports fans and bettors will find out Aug. 5.

That’s when YouTube star Jake Paul and UFC legend Nate Diaz are scheduled to strap on 10-ounce gloves and duke it out in a boxing match scheduled for eight rounds.

The fight, which will take place in Dallas, will be contested at 185 pounds and be distributed via pay-per-view.

Oddsmakers in the United States have been slow to post odds on the bout, which was announced Wednesday. However, all indications are that one fighter will walk into the ring as a sizable betting favorite — and it’s not the guy who has far more professional fighting experience.

Odds updated as of 2 p.m. ET on April 13.

Jake Paul favored to rebound from first loss

As of midday Wednesday, only one major North American sportsbook operator had weighed in with a Paul vs. Diaz wagering opinion: FanDuel, which priced the bout at Paul -240/Diaz +184.

FanDuel’s opening odds are a bit shorter than what was posted at multiple sportsbooks offshore. In those locales, Paul was ranging from a -270 to -300 favorite.

So it’s safe to assume that when other U.S. sportsbooks begin taking action on what figures to be the most-hyped fight of the summer, Paul will be a consensus favorite in the 2.5-to-1 range.

This despite the fact that Paul is coming off his first professional defeat, a split-decision loss to Tommy Fury — brother of heavyweight champion Tyson Fury — on Feb. 26 in Saudi Arabia.

Prior to facing Fury, Paul had won his first six professional fights. He launched his prizefighting career in 2020 after generating a massive YouTube following.

As for Diaz, he last fought Sept. 20, when he earned a submission victory over Tony Ferguson in a 170-pound bout at UFC 279.

That victory capped Diaz’s 15-year career fighting under the UFC umbrella. He went 21-13, with his signature victory being a stoppage of Connor McGregor at UFC 196 in March 2016.

McGregor avenged that defeat a little more than six months later with a split-decision victory at UFC 202.

Although Diaz has only fought four times since the McGregor rematch, he has remained one of UFC’s most popular fighters. He also is widely considered to be one of the top boxers in MMA history and once served as a sparring partner for former boxing champion Andre Ward.

However, his upcoming battle with Paul will be Diaz’s first inside the squared circle. That, plus the fact that three of Paul’s six professional wins have come against former MMA fighters — including onetime UFC champ Anderson Silva — explains why Diaz will step into the ring in Dallas as a heavy underdog.

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