MLB betting: How oddsmakers are reacting to Tampa Bay Rays’ 11-0 start

Two weeks ago, the Tampa Bay Rays were gearing up for Opening Day with the following expectations in the MLB wagering circles:

Third-best odds to win the American League East.

Tied for fifth-best odds to win the American League pennant.

Tied for 12th-best odds to win the World Series.

Eleven consecutive victories later? Let’s just say expectations have changed a bit for the team that leads all of baseball in runs scored, runs allowed, home runs hit, fewest home runs allowed, OPS and ERA — oh, and money won for bettors.

Here’s a look at where the Rays currently stand in various MLB futures markets after jumping out to the best start to a season in nearly four decades.

Odds updated as of 2:15 p.m. ET on April 12.

Tampa Bay has qualified for baseball’s postseason each of the last four years. That franchise-record run includes two division titles, one second-place finish and one World Series appearance (2020).

So it’s not like the Rays entered the 2023 season projected to battle the Oakland A’s and Washington Nationals for baseball’s worst record.

That said, MLB oddsmakers and bettors didn’t exactly hang a “buy” sign on this year’s club.

Prior to Opening Day, Tampa Bay was +350 at BetMGM to win the American League East — a distant third behind the defending division champion New York Yankees (+100) and Toronto Blue Jays (+220).

The Rays also trailed both those rivals — as well the Houston Astros (last year’s World Series champion) and Seattle Mariners (who have never been to a World Series) — in odds to win the American League pennant. Tampa Bay was +1200 at BetMGM, tied with the Chicago White Sox.

The Rays’ odds to win the World Series heading into spring training: +2200, tied with the Milwaukee Brewers and behind more than one-third of MLB’s 30 teams.

Then came Opening Day and a 4-0 shutout of the Detroit Tigers, who went to get swept in the three-game series by a combined score of 21-3.

Tampa Bay then traveled to Washington and swept three games from the Nationals by a combined score 23-10. Followed by a three-game home sweep of the A’s by a combined score of 31-5. Followed by two more home victories, this time against the Boston Red Sox by scores of 1-0 and 7-2.

The Rays’ 11-0 start ranks as the fifth-best in MLB history — and best since the 1982 Atlanta Braves and 1987 Brewers started 13-0.

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Of course, plenty of skeptics have been quick to point out Tampa Bay’s incredibly soft season-opening schedule. And indeed the Rays have been favored — and often massively so — in every game.

However, it’s difficult to argue with 11-0 when 10 of those wins were by at least four runs.

It’s also difficult to argue with Tampa’s mind-boggling plus-63 run differential. The next-best run differential heading into Wednesday’s action? Milwaukee at +28.

As you might assume, baseball’s last remaining unbeaten squad also has the biggest division cushion — four games over the Yankees and Blue Jays.

Also as you might assume, oddsmakers have adjusted the Rays’ futures prices — in a big way.

Tampa is now favored at BetMGM to win the AL East at +130, ahead of New York (+160) and Toronto (+300). The Rays also have seen their odds to win the American League slashed in half at BetMGM, from +1200 to +600.

Only the Astros (+350) and Yankees (+375) have shorter AL pennant odds.

The Rays’ move up BetMGM’s World Series odds board has been even more dramatic: They are now tied with Toronto for seventh at +1200.

Further proof that Tampa is garnering a lot of respect in the betting community: On Wednesday, the team’s No. 1 pitching prospect — 22-year-old right-hander Taj Bradley — will make his major league debut against two-time strikeout king and 2017 American League Cy Young runner-up Chris Sale.

And Bradley and the Rays are favored.

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Despite laying steep prices in most of their games, the Rays already have made a small fortune for their backers. They’re +5.3 units on the moneyline (tied with Arizona for tops in MLB) and +8 units on the run line (best in baseball).

However, when it comes to the futures markets, bettors have been slow to warm to Tampa Bay.

At BetMGM, the Rays are dead last in both tickets (6.4%) and money (11.4%) to win the AL East. Yes, even behind Boston (26.0% tickets, 22.1% money) and Baltimore (29.2% tickets, 22.4% money).

In odds to win the American League, Tampa is ninth in number of bets placed (4.7%) and seventh in money wagered (5.7%).

And in BetMGM’s World Series market, the Rays are 13th in tickets (2.7%) and 14th in cash (2.4%).

Obviously, with less than 15 percent of the season complete, there’s still a long way to go. But it’s clear that MLB futures bettors are taking a wait-and-see approach with the 2023 Tampa Bay Rays.

In the meantime, those Rays keep chalking up victories — and usually in impressive fashion.

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