Capitals vs. Flyers prediction: Bet on Philly to cap homestand with a win

When the Philadelphia Flyers kicked off a five-game homestand against the New York Islanders eight days ago, they lugged a 10-game losing streak onto the ice.

At that time, nobody would’ve wagered a nickel that the Flyers would head into the fifth and final game in a position to end the homestand with a winning record.

And yet after splitting the first four contests, that’s precisely the situation the Flyers face Wednesday when they welcome the Washington Capitals to Wells Fargo Center.

Can Philadelphia pull it off while simultaneously winning consecutive games for the first time in nearly a month (and just the third time all season)? Or will the underachieving Capitals end their six-game, bicoastal, multi-country road trip with a .500 record?

Here’s our Capitals vs. Flyers prediction for two rivals hanging out near the basement of the Metropolitan Division.

Note: Odds updated as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Dec. 7.

This is as much (if not more so) a play against Washington as it is a play on Philadelphia.

For starters, the Capitals (11-12-4) have been overvalued in the NHL betting market all season. That’s borne out by the fact that only five teams have cost bettors more money than Washington. And only one club (Anaheim) has been less profitable when playing on the road.

The Caps have just four victories in 15 road games. Sure, two of the wins came on the team’s current six-game road trip: 5-1 at Vancouver eight days ago and 3-2 at Edmonton on Monday night.

But the victory over the Oilers is reason alone to fade Washington on Wednesday. Because the Caps haven’t won consecutive roadies all season. Heck, they’ve won back-to-back games regardless of venue just three times (once more than the Flyers).

Washington also arrives in Philly with issues in net. Starting goaltender Darcy Kuemper sat out Sunday’s game at Edmonton with an upper-body injury and is questionable for Wednesday’s contest.

Kuemper has posted solid numbers in his first season with the Caps (2.56 goals-against, .916 save percentage). But Washington has only converted those numbers into an 8-9-2 record.

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However, compare that with the squad’s record in front of backup goalie Charlie Lindgren: 3-6 (including one overtime loss and one shootout defeat).

Lindgren was terrific Monday against Connor McDavid and the Oilers, stopping 30 of 32 shots. But he still has a 3.00 goals-against and an .895 save percentage. And prior to Monday Lindgren had allowed at least three goals in each of his first six starts.

Obviously, whoever starts in net for Washington on Wednesday won’t be facing a dangerous offense. The Flyers (9-12-5) still rank ahead of only Anaheim in the goals-per-game department (2.46).

That said, Philadelphia matched its season high in goals during Sunday’s 5-3 upset victory over the defending Stanley Cup champion Avalanche. That win gave the Flyers a 2-2 record during their homestand — which shouldn’t seem like a big deal, except that it was preceded by that 10-game losing skid.

Also, when these teams met for the first time this season on Nov. 23, Philadelphia nearly pulled off a big upset in D.C. The Flyers (+215) had leads of 1-0 and 2-1 but gave up the tying goal with less than three minutes to play. They eventually fell 3-2 in overtime.

That game, coupled with the similar overall records, indicates that not much separates these teams right now. So even though Philadelphia goalie Carter Hart continues to struggle since his hot start — he’s allowed three or more goals in 10 of his last 13 outings — we so no reason why the Flyers can’t win this one.

Take the plus money with Philly at FanDuel.

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