Fade trendy UConn and back the Boilermakers to cover a too-large spread Monday night

The Connecticut Huskies will face the Purdue Boilermakers on Monday night in UConn’s bid to be the first team to win back-to-back men’s college basketball titles since the Florida Gators in 2007.

This will also be the fifth time the top two teams in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings meet in the title game.

Even if you’re a neutral fan, this is the one college basketball game you absolutely can’t miss.

The Huskies have been a juggernaut during the tournament, winning by an average margin of 25 points through five games. They’ve also covered the point spread in 11 straight tournament games dating back to last season.

Based on those trends, you’d think Connecticut should be an auto bet as a 7.5-point favorite, but the Boilermakers will easily be the best team the Huskies face this season, and they’re determined to go all the way after their embarrassing first-round loss to No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson in last year’s tournament.

Purdue found another gear after its 76-75 overtime loss to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals. That loss might have been the best thing for the Boilermakers because it allowed coach Matt Painter to stress to his players that they still had plenty of work to do before the NCAA Tournament.

Since then, we’ve seen a much more determined Boilermakers team, led by the back-to-back National Player of the Year winner Zach Edey.

Given his size — 7-foot-4 — Edey can be a handful for opponents. But perhaps his ability to log heavy minutes is the most impressive thing about him.

While he’s averaged 31.7 minutes per game over the last two years, he’s looked even leaner this season and rarely appears winded getting up and down the court. He played the entire game in Purdue’s 63-50 win over N.C. State in the Final Four, and averaged 39 minutes in his last three contests.

But the Boilermakers are more of a threat than just Edey on the interior. They returned all five starters and 86% of their player minutes from a season ago. The biggest improvement was in their backcourt, with guards Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith, who gained valuable experience after starting last season as freshmen.

In Purdue’s first-round loss to Fairleigh Dickinson, the Knights swarmed Edey, daring the Boilermakers to settle for 3-point shots. Purdue shot just 19.2% (5-of-26) from beyond the arc and 32.2% for the year.

But this season, the Boilermakers are shooting 40.6% from the perimeter — the second-best mark in college basketball.

As a result, the Boilermakers have vastly improved from a season ago, and they deserve more respect than they’re getting as 7.5-point underdogs.

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There aren’t many weaknesses within this Huskies team. Not only do they win consistently, but they’re also adept at covering the point spread.

According to our Action Labs database, the Huskies are the second-most profitable team against the spread (ATS) this season with a 25-10 (71.4%) mark.

Overall, they’re well-balanced, ranking in the top five of Pomeroy’s Adjusted Offense (No.1 ) and Defensive Efficiency (No. 4) metrics.

The Huskies’ ability to score on the perimeter and inside the paint makes them a challenging opponent. UConn ranks 60th with 8.6 3-pointers per game, slightly more than Purdue’s 8.3. Per RealGM, the Huskies rank 15th in scoring inside the paint with an average of 38.8 points.

However, the presence of Edey can be a massive deterrent for opposing teams looking to score on the interior. According to Hoop-Math, the Boilermakers allow the fourth-lowest percentage (28.2%) of shots at the rim.

The Huskies have often benefited from having a size advantage with 7-foot-2 center Donovan Clingan patrolling the paint. That won’t be the case when he matches up against Edey.

While NBA scouts view Clingan as a potential NBA lottery pick for his ability to run the floor and shoot from the perimeter, he only averages 22.3 minutes per game.

Thus, it’s tough to suddenly ramp up your minutes when you have a 300-pound center in Edey leaning on you for 30 or more minutes in a game.

Experience and continuity are two characteristics of Pomeroy tracks, and it wouldn’t surprise me if both played a massive role in this matchup.

Purdue is ahead of Connecticut in both categories, which could tip the scale in the Boilermakers’ favor.

The sportsbooks have been buried with Huskies’ tickets, given that their tournament success dates back to last year.

My guess is they’re well aware that the public will continue supporting Connecticut at almost any price. We’ve already seen the Huskies bet up to -7.5 after opening at -6.5.

However, this number feels a touch high as my model makes Purdue no worse than a four-point underdog.

It’s worth noting that the underdog is on a 3-0 run against the spread when the top two teams in Pomeroy’s rankings meet in the championship game.

Lastly, according to our Action Network Public Betting count, the Boilermakers have just 38% of the tickets but 72% of the money.

Therefore, this is a great spot to fade the trendy favorite and back the Boilermakers at +7.5.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.