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TCU vs. Kansas Prediction: Fade the Jayhawks hype train Saturday

Will Kansas’ Cinderella run come to an end against the Horned Frogs?

Jalon Daniels of the Kansas Jayhawks throws a pass during the second half against the Duke Blue Devils at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium on September 24, 2022 in Lawrence, Kansas. Kansas defeated Duke 35-27. (Photo by Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images)
Jalon Daniels of the Kansas Jayhawks throws a pass during the second half against the Duke Blue Devils at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium on September 24, 2022 in Lawrence, Kansas. Kansas defeated Duke 35-27. (Photo by Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images)Read moreJay Biggerstaff / Getty Images
    by Michael Leboff, Action Network
    Published 

It’s a monumental weekend in Lawrence, Kan. Not only are the Kansas Jayhawks undefeated and ranked inside the top-25 for the first time since 2009, but ESPN’s College Gameday is traveling to the KU Campus for the first time in program history.

Despite the hype, hoopla and home-field advantage, the Jayhawks are seven-point underdogs against TCU at the David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium.

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TCU vs. Kansas Prediction: TCU -7 (FanDuel)

As expected, money came pouring in on the opener, which was TCU -5, after the Horned Frogs demolished Oklahoma, 55-24, in Fort Worth. It was a dazzling offensive display that saw TCU put up 668 yards of total offense and solidify the Horned Frogs as one of the favorites to win the Big 12.

The Oklahoma defense has proven to be a disaster this season, but it was still an impressive display from an offense that now ranks 11th in rushing success rate, 32nd in line yards, 23rd in passing success rate and 16th in finishing drives.

The Kansas defense should have issues slowing down the Frogs as they rank 79th, 103rd, 86th and 53rd in the defensive side of those metrics, respectively.

The Jayhawks offense has been able to mask the team’s defensive flaws to this point and Kansas is coming off a 14-11 win over Iowa State, but TCU is going to be the best offense this unit has faced yet this season and their team total of 38.5 points reflects that notion.

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Jalon Daniels and the Kansas offense should also have success against a TCU defense that ranks 88th in rushing success rate and 84th in line yards. The Jayhawks boast a 62.2% rush rate on the season and prefer to let Daniels’ dual-threat ability set the tempo when they have the ball. That should give the Horned Frogs some issues, but it is worth noting that Daniels and Rock Chalk struggled with Iowa State’s 3-3-5 defensive scheme last Saturday and will see that same set-up against TCU.

It’s hard not to fall in love with what’s going on with the Kansas Jayhawks right now. This is a team that went 3-9 or worse -- including two winless campaigns -- in each of the last 12 seasons. Seeing Rock Chalk ranked at 5-0 and hosting ESPN Gameday is awesome. But unfortunately in betting, there is usually value going against Cinderella. That is the case here as the TCU offense should be able to get the separation needed to cover this number.

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