Is 2023 the year for Penn State to win the Big Ten? The odds favor their chances

Penn State has a huge opportunity in the College Football 2023 Odds.

The Nittany Lions return a lot of defensive production and have a very high upside on offense. There’s more continuity on the coaching staff and a potential All-American suiting up at quarterback.

The schedule also breaks well for the Lions.

So, let’s ask the hard question: Can Penn State win the Big Ten conference in 2023?

Let’s look at the full Big Ten conference odds and discuss Penn State’s place in the league.

Odds via FanDuel.

This wager is listed as “Big 10 Conference Championship Game Winner 2023″ at FanDuel sportsbook:

» READ MORE: Early Penn State betting odds: Lions are underdogs vs. Big Ten football powers

The short answer is a resounding yes.

The long answer requires a discussion of Penn State’s program, its upcoming schedule, and whether there’s value in its current market odds.

First, let’s talk about the state of Penn State football.

The defense brings back a ton entering 2023. Per Bill Connelly of ESPN, the Nittany Lions rank 24th among FBS schools in returning defensive production, and this is the year after having a top-10 defense by EPA per play allowed.

The defense lost a few pieces, such as Joey Porter Jr., but will have tons of experience and talent. The front seven will be led by Abdul Carter, Chop Robinson and Curtis Jacobs, who all return to Happy Valley after a productive 2022. Meanwhile, Kalen King will anchor the secondary after finishing fourth among all college cornerbacks in Pro Football Focus’s coverage grades last season.

The offense will be unproven, but that unit has the highest ceiling in the Big Ten.

Penn State improved dramatically underneath offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich, and it’ll be the first time the Nittany Lions have had a third-year offensive coordinator in over a decade.

Continuity is the first step to having a successful college football attack.

The second step is having a stud quarterback.

Well, the Nittany Lions are hoping they found that in Drew Allar.

Allar was the No. 1 overall recruit for the class of 2022. He’s a big-bodied quarterback with sound mechanics, a quick throwing motion and a monster arm. He can also throw from different arm angles and is athletic enough to extend plays and even hit the occasional scramble.

» READ MORE: Marvin Harrison Jr. listed as top non-QB in 2023 Heisman odds; Penn State’s Drew Allar in the mix

Essentially, Allar is the perfect quarterback prospect for today’s era of football. He has a chance to be special.

Penn State has surrounded him with enough talent to be special. Tackle Olumuyiwa Fashanu would’ve been a first-round draft pick but returned to school to anchor the offensive line and protect Aller. Meanwhile, he’s got a former No. 1 running back recruit, Nick Singleton, in the backfield and Kent State wideout transfer Dante Cephas as a lead pass catcher.

Allar still has to live up to his potential. But, he has the tools, the coaching and the supporting pieces to do so.

Connelly’s SP+ ratings make the Nittany Lions a true contender in the Big Ten, projecting Michigan (10.78 wins), Ohio State (10.78 wins) and Penn State (10.17 wins) as the only 10-win teams in the conference.

The Big Ten champ will almost certainly come out of the Big Ten East.

So, can this iteration of the Lions beat out the other two Big Ten powerhouses?

Again, the answer is yes.

While I project Michigan as the best team in the conference (mostly because of returning production), the Wolverines will have to play Penn State in Happy Valley during a soft spot in the Lions’ schedule. That’s a monster swing game in the Big Ten East, and the situation favors Penn State.

And while Ohio State will always project as one of the nation’s best football teams, they’re moving off C.J. Stroud and working in a new quarterback. And at the time of writing, we’re not 100% sure who Ryan Day will play under center.

So, the door is open for Penn State to slide in and hoist the Big Ten title for the first time since 2016.

But, again, is there any value in the market number for Penn State?

At (+600), Penn State is given fair implied odds of 14.3% to win the Big Ten Championship game.

Given the returning production on defense, the upside and continuity on offense, and the scheduling context, I think those odds are slightly low. I think Penn State wins the Big Ten more often than the line implies.

I’m taking a shot with the 6-to-1 number available at FanDuel. There’s too much to like about Penn State in the upcoming season.

The Play: Big 10 Conference Championship Game Winner 2022 - Penn State (+600)

» READ MORE: Penn State opens as favorite over Michigan State in Black Friday matchup at Ford Field

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.