Central Michigan vs. Penn State prediction: The Chippewas can cover a big number

The Penn State Nittany Lions are off and running in 2022. After coming into the season with modest expectations (they were ranked outside of the preseason Top-25), the Nittany Lions have raced to a 3-0 start with road wins over Purdue and Auburn. Neither the Boilermakers nor the Tigers were expected to be all that special this season, but those are still tricky places to go and win.

Penn State’s start has caught the attention of voters, as they now sit as the No. 14 team in the country, and bettors, as the Nittany Lions have moved from -24.5 to -28 in Saturday’s contest with Central Michigan.

Whenever a team like Penn State goes on a run like this to start the season — not only are the Nittany Lions 3-0, but they’re also perfect against the spread (ATS) — bettors need to ask themselves a tricky question: Is the market overreacting to a small sample? Or has it just not caught up to how good this team is this season?

In this spot, it seems like the former, although it has a lot to do with the opponent for Saturday’s game in Happy Valley.

Central Michigan is off to a spotty start to the season — they lost to Oklahoma State and Southern Alabama but pasted Bucknell — but one thing is pretty clear, the Chippewas can put up points. Central Michigan put up 44 points on the Pokes, 24 against South Alabama and 41 against Bucknell. Central Michigan ranks 26th in explosive play rate, 36th in rushing success rate, 32nd in passing success rate and 41st in line yard on offense.

That’s an offense that should be able to cover a big number, especially if Penn State struggles to stop explosive plays like they did against Auburn, who registered nine of them in a dismal effort last week.

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Central Michigan’s defense clearly has issues to sort out and will struggle to contain the passing game — the Chips rank 113th in passing success rate on defense, while Penn State is 54th offensively — but the offense should keep them within striking distance of this number.

There’s plenty of reasons for optimism after Penn State’s rousing start to the season, but this number is clearly inflated. All you need to do to see that is look back a couple of weeks ago when the Nittany Lions closed as 24-point favorites against Ohio, a team that is considerably worse than Central Michigan.

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