Penn State vs. Maryland betting history, trends: Expect Nittany Lions to win big

Although they are separated by just under 200 miles, when No. 14 Penn State (7-2) and Maryland (6-3) meet Saturday in Beaver Stadium, Penn State will meet Maryland for the 45th time, which dates back to 1917. The last go-around was a 31-14 Nittany Lions win in College Park, Md., last season.

The Nittany Lions, fresh off a dominant win over Indiana led by their swarming defense and freshmen running back duo of Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton, still have an opportunity to compete in a New Year’s Six Bowl game if they can win out.

Meanwhile, the Maryland Terrapins are still in search of a signature win this season. They fell to Wisconsin last week, but are already bowl-eligible and are looking to clinch a season with eight or more wins for the first time since joining the Big Ten. The Terps finished 7-6 last season.

Oddsmakers favor Penn State ahead of this game. Penn State is listed as 10.5-point home favorites vs. Maryland at BetMGM. In the series history, the Terps have been favored once against Penn State, back in 2016 as one-point favorites in Beaver Stadium. The Nittany Lions crushed the Terps, 38-14.

Overall, Penn State holds a 6-2 advantage since 2014, James Franklin’s first year with the Nittany Lions and Maryland’s first year in the Big Ten. The Terps stunned the Nittany Lions, 20-19, but thereafter Penn State would dominate the series after, winning five straight matchups by an average of 36.4 points per game. That includes a 66-3 win in 2017 and a 59-0 win in 2019.

Against the spread, Penn State is 5-3 against Maryland. The Nittany Lions failed to cover their first two matchups, but achieved the cover in three of their last four matchups. For the second year in a row, the Nittany Lions are double-digit favorites after being favored in College Park by 10 points last season.

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In the previous four matchups where Penn State was favored by double-digits against Maryland, only once did Penn state fail to cover. That was in 2020 when the Nittany Lions were overwhelming 27.5-point favorites and lost outright, 35-19, in an ugly pandemic season where they finished 4-5.

After covering in four of their first five games, including their Big Ten opener against No. 3 Michigan where they entered the game as 17-point underdogs, the Terrapins have dropped four straight Big Ten games against the spread. Their last matchup against Wisconsin ended in a 13-point loss as five-point road underdogs.

Meanwhile, Sean Clifford and the Nittany Lions have now covered in three straight games after covering the 13.5-point spread against Indiana this past weekend.

In Penn State’s six wins, their average margin of victory is 33.2 per game. History says to back the Nittany Lions as 10.5-point favorites, even with Maryland playing Michigan close and the Nittany Lions losing by 24 in the Big House.

MAR: +300

PSU: +375

Betting line: PSU -10.5; O/U: 59.5

*Penn State is 6-3 against the spread in 2022, while Maryland is 4-5 ATS.

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